Severe Thunderstorms with Damaging Winds, Large Hail Will Continue to Pummel Midwest

Tom Moore
Published: July 11,2016
Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a few tornadoes are expected to continue to pound parts of the Midwest the next several days.
Sunday evening, a swarm of thunderstorms with damaging hail, in addition to damaging winds, tore across the northern Plains from far eastern Montana to northern Minnesota.
Damage to siding, windows, and skylights was reported in the town of Killdeer, North Dakota, about 100 miles west-northwest of Bismarck, thanks to hail larger than baseballs, driven by high winds.

In Baker, Montana, wind gusts as high as 65 mph and hail up to 1.75 inches in diamater knocked down trees and broke windows on homes.
Winds gusted as high as 70 mph in Fairfield, North Dakota, and that combined with 1.75 inch hail broke both car and home windows.

A tornado was spotted by storm chasers near Dillon, Montana, Sunday afternoon. No damage was reported as a result of this. According to NOAA/NCEI, this was the first reported tornado in Beaverhead County, Montana, since July 19, 1997.
Flash flooding will also be a concern to start this week as thunderstorm complexes unleash heavy rainfall in a short period of time.
(MORE: National Interactive Radar Map | Differences Between a Watch and a Warning)

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

Below are the latest daily forecast details followed by more information on setup for the stormy weather.

Severe Weather Forecast

Monday

• Forecast: The potential for severe thunderstorms shifts eastward and will stretch from the eastern Dakotas, Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin southward into parts of Iowa, northern Missouri, eastern Nebraska and northeast Kansas.
• Threats: Damaging winds and large hail can be expected, and a few tornadoes are possible.
• Cities: Grand Forks, North Dakota | Sioux Falls, South Dakota | Omaha, Nebraska | Duluth, Minnesota | Minneapolis

Monday's Thunderstorm Forecast

Tuesday

• Forecast: Some severe weather may continue on Tuesday as the cold front marches east from upper Michigan southwestward into parts of Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri and Kansas.
• Threats: Damaging winds, large hail and locally heavy rainfall.
• Cities: Chicago | Des Moines | Milwaukee

Tuesday's Thunderstorm Forecast

Setup For Severe Weather

An exaggerated jet stream pattern will set the stage for severe weather to develop on Monday. A significant cold trough of low pressure (dip in the jet stream) will slide eastward from the northern Rockies. Meanwhile, a very warm high-pressure ridge (bulge in the jet stream) will prevail up through the Great Lakes.

Jet Stream Forecast Monday (GFS Model)

The area between these two prominent features will be favorable for severe thunderstorm development, as a southerly wind flow transports moisture northward. On Monday, the trough pushes eastward and the severe threat will shift to the Upper Midwest.
By Tuesday, the trough will weaken so severe weather will likely be more spotty.

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MORE: Plains, Midwest Severe Weather and Flooding