Heavy Rain, Flash Flooding Possible from Tennessee and Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic, Including Flood-Ravaged West Virginia

Brian Donegan
Published: July 27,2016
A concerning forecast is in store from the Tennessee Valley to parts of the Ohio Valley, including flood-ravaged West Virginia, into Friday evening as a series of disturbances enhances the risk for heavy rain and flash flooding.
A moisture-filled area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere will slide toward the Tennessee and Ohio valleys on Thursday, beginning a two-day threat of heavy rain and flash flooding.
(MORE: Deadly West Virginia Flooding Leaves Thousands Homeless)

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)
The National Weather Service has placed several states from the Tennessee and Ohio valleys to the mid-Atlantic under flash flood watches.

Current Flood Alerts

How Much Rain?

One to 3 inches of rainfall is in the forecast over a broad swath from western Tennessee and Kentucky eastward through West Virginia and into the I-95 corridor, including Washington D.C.
(FORECAST: Charleston | Louisville | Memphis)
Any thunderstorms that train, or re-form over the same area for several consecutive hours, have the potential to dump over 3 inches of rain. This is why flash flooding will be a concern into Friday evening.
(MORE: Severe Storms Threaten the Plains, Midwest This Week)

Rainfall Forecast

Setup for Flash Flooding

As an upper-level low slides toward the Ohio Valley on Thursday, a tropical air mass will set up over the region.
Meanwhile, a stalled front is already in place over the area, and the interaction of these two features will set the stage for potentially heavy rainfall.
(MORE: When Will Relief from the Brutal Heat Arrive?)

Low pressure will develop at the surface Thursday night and push eastward into Friday and Friday evening, riding along the stationary front.
As the low moves east, the threat for flash flooding will extend into portions of the mid-Atlantic region, possibly even up into the Northeast in places like Philadelphia and New York City.
MORE: West Virginia Flooding in June