- Kilo was downgraded to a tropical depression last Friday night, and continues to struggle.
- This system was located about 550 miles west-southwest of Barking Sands, Hawaii, or about 190 miles northeast of Johnston Island Hawaii as of Tuesday evening, local time.
- A tropical storm watch is in effect for Johnston Island, meaning tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 48 hours.
- While the intensity forecast remains a challenge, there is still a possibility that Kilo could become a tropical storm later this week.
- Kilo is no longer a threat to Hawaii, but the system should pass close to Johnston Island on Thursday
(MORE: Expert Analysis | Hurricane Central)
Storm Information and Satellite
Projected Path
Latest Hawaii Radar
Tropical Depression Kilo has defied model forecasts for days now, remaining sheared and disorganized over 500 miles west-southwest of the western Hawaiian Islands.
One of two scenarios is possible with Kilo. If Kilo continues to degenerate, it could become a remnant low at any time. It is not uncommon for central Pacific tropical systems to suddenly weaken and dissipate.
On the other hand, Kilo may still be able to better organize, assuming wind shear finally relaxes. The latest Central Pacific Hurricane Center forecast strengthens Kilo to a minimal tropical storm sometime this week, moving only very slowly to the west or west-southwest north of Johnston Atoll.
Despite Kilo's inability to organize, the large-scale circulation near Hawaii has brought enhanced moisture to the Aloha State, leading to locally heavy rainfall.
Honolulu picked up 4.48 inches of rain from early Sunday morning through early Tuesday morning (local time), resulting in some road flooding and road closures on Oahu, Maui and the Big Island. Rain rates of 3-4 inches per hour were estimated by radar early Tuesday morning approaching Kauai. A flood watch continues for all the Hawaiian Islands.
Thunderstorms over the islands produced up to an estimated 10,000 cloud-to-ground lightning strikes over a 24-hour period from midday Sunday through midday Monday, according to the National Weather Service in Honolulu.
Honolulu's 3.53 inches of rain Monday was an all-time record for any August day, topping a 2.92-inch deluge from Aug. 4, 2004, and propelled the Hawaiian capital to its wettest month of August, besting that record which had stood since 1888 (4.47 inches).
Perspective on Kilo and Hawaiian Tropical Systems
Virtually all hurricanes near the Hawaiian Islands since 1950 have approached from the southeast, south, or southwest.In El Nino years, the trade winds that sometimes trap tropical cyclones well south of the islands relax, making these lingering storms south of the islands more susceptible to be drawn northward. Of course, an El Nino does not guarantee a hurricane will impact Hawaii.
(MORE: Hawaii's Hurricane History)
Kilo is the fourth named storm to have formed in the central Pacific basin this season and the sixth to track through the basin this year, including eastern Pacific storms Guillermo and Hilda. Loke became the record-breaking fifth storm to form this season in the central Pacific Friday, according to Eric Blake, hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center.
Four to five tropical cyclones are observed in the central Pacific each year, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. CPHC says a record 11 named storms were observed in the central Pacific in 1992 and 1994.
(FORECASTS: Honolulu | Hilo | Kona Coast | Maui)
NOAA's 2015 Central Pacific hurricane season outlook cited El Nino's tendency for reduced wind shear and more storm tracks coming from the eastern Pacific as reasons to expect an active season in the central Pacific Basin.
Lowry says dating to 1950, there is a 13 percent increase in the chance of a named storm to track within 100 miles of the Hawaiian Islands during an El Nino year compared to a neutral year.
Stay tuned to The Weather Channel and check back with weather.com for updates on this system.
No comments:
Post a Comment