Highlights
- Tropical Storm Erika formed late Monday night in the central Atlantic and is currently about 495 miles east of Antigua.
- Tropical storm watches are in effect for parts of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. These watches may eventually be upgraded to warnings.
- Erika is expected to remain a tropical storm and slowly gather strength as it moves quickly to the west.
- The northern Leeward Islands may feel tropical storm-force winds by late Wednesday night into early Thursday.
- Erika may then bring more rain to drought-suffering Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
- Erika's future track and intensity beyond Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands is highly uncertain, and may involve a track near the Bahamas this weekend and possibly parts of the Southeast U.S. coast next week.
Current Status
Erika Watches/Warnings
Projected Path
Model Tracks: Invest 98-L
Tropical Storm Erika is currently centered just under 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and is moving quickly westward at18 mph.
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For the next couple of days, Erika will be moving into an environment with some vertical wind shear, some dry air, both general inhibitors for tropical cyclone intensification.
Erika may face a lower magnitude of wind shear and dry than did the former Hurricane Danny, but these negative factors, plus a potential future track over land in the Caribbean complicate both the intensity and track forecasts.
The tropical storm was clearly struggling Tuesday night as Air Force hurricane hunter data suggested that the low-level center of Erika remained exposed to the north of limited convection. Also, the central pressure rose to 1006mb at 11 p.m. EDT Tuesday, a sign that the storm is having difficulty better organizing.
Due to Erika's fast movement, it's already forecast to arrive in the northern Leeward islands Wednesday night or early Thursday with potential tropical storm-force winds and heavy rain, prompting tropical storm watches to be issued early Tuesday morning for Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, Aguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Guadeloupe, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.
This is the second time in less than three days watches have been hoisted in the Leeward Islands, done so this past weekend ahead of Tropical Storm Danny, whose remnants are sliding through the Caribbean ahead of Erika.
(MORE: Hurricane Danny Recap)
Watches may need to be upgraded to warnings, especially if Erika does strengthen later this week. Either way, Erika is forecast to spread rain and wind into drought-suffering areas, such as Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Thursday into Friday.
Erika's Possible Steering Pattern Ahead
An Uncertain Future: Bahamas, U.S. Threat?
Beyond that, the forecast has a large amount of uncertainty, due to a potential track over land in the Caribbean, interaction with the aforementioned wind shear, and the nature of the upper-level steering flow near the eastern U.S. next week.Specifically, the sharp southward dip in the jet stream in the East responsible for the cool, dry air in the Midwest and Northeast. If this pattern would hold, any tropical cyclone approaching from the northern Caribbean or Bahamas would curl northeast away from the U.S. East Coast.
However, that pattern is going to change.
That southward dip will be replaced by a northward-migrating jet into eastern Canada and northern New England. Any leftover remnant of that previous southward dip will be much weaker and probably farther west.
Coupled with the Bermuda high setting up southwest of Bermuda, this isn't a pattern that may necessarily keep Erika -- assuming it survives -- safely away from the U.S. coast next week.
A stronger Erika may get pulled farther northwest, along the northern edge of the forecast path, and may be more susceptible to the potential steering pattern we mentioned above. The latest National Hurricane Center forecast projects that Erika could follow this route and become a hurrica e on Sunday.
A weaker Erika would track farther west and south along the southern edge of the forecast path, and may get ripped apart over land.
Keep in mind we're still at least five days out or more before a potential Erika flirtation with the East Coast. The average forecast track error of a National Hurricane Center five-day forecast is about 241 statute miles. Intensity forecasts can also prove challenging, as was the case recently with Danny.
All interests in Hispanola, The Bahamas, Cuba and the southeast United States should continue to monitor the progress of Erika.
(MORE: Expert Analysis | Hurricane Central)
Check back with The Weather Channel and weather.com for updates during the week ahead.
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