Saturday, August 29, 2015

Hurricane Kilo Strengthening in the Central Pacific Near International Dateline

August 29,2015
  • Kilo became a hurricane early Saturday, and is strengthening near the International Dateline in the central Pacific Ocean.
  • Kilo will continue to gather strength over the next several days as it curls northwest.
  • Kilo would be renamed "Typhoon Kilo" if it crosses the International Dateline in the week ahead.
  • Kilo is not a threat to Hawaii.
(MORE: Expert Analysis | Hurricane Central)

Storm Information and Satellite

Projected Path






























Hurricane Kilo has defied model forecasts for days now, and has finally become a hurricane in the central Pacific Ocean.
Fortunately, Kilo is of no land threat, well west of the Hawaiian Islands.
Kilo will continue to curl northwest over the open waters of the central Pacific the next few days and could gain more strength.
Interestingly, if Kilo manages to cross the International Dateline, it would be renamed "Typhoon Kilo".

Hawaii in the Rearview Mirror

Despite Kilo's inability to organize, the large-scale circulation near Hawaii brought enhanced moisture to the Aloha State, leading to locally heavy rainfall earlier this week.
Honolulu picked up 4.48 inches of rain from early Sunday morning through early Tuesday morning (local time), resulting in some road flooding and road closures on Oahu, Maui and the Big Island. Rain rates of 3-4 inches per hour were estimated by radar early Tuesday morning approaching Kauai. A flood watch continues for all the Hawaiian Islands.
Thunderstorms over the islands produced up to an estimated 10,000 cloud-to-ground lightning strikes over a 24-hour period from midday Sunday through midday Monday, according to the National Weather Service in Honolulu.
Honolulu's 3.53 inches of rain Monday was an all-time record for any August day, topping a 2.92-inch deluge from Aug. 4, 2004, and propelled the Hawaiian capital to its wettest month of August, besting that record which had stood since 1888 (4.47 inches).
Kilo is the fourth named storm to have formed in the central Pacific basin this season and the sixth to track through the basin this year, including eastern Pacific storms Guillermo and Hilda. Loke became the record-breaking fifth storm to form this season in the central Pacific Friday, according to Eric Blake, hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center.
Four to five tropical cyclones are observed in the central Pacific each year, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. CPHC says a record 11 named storms were observed in the central Pacific in 1992 and 1994.
(FORECASTS: Honolulu | Hilo | Kona Coast | Maui)
NOAA's 2015 Central Pacific hurricane season outlook cited El Nino's tendency for reduced wind shear and more storm tracks coming from the eastern Pacific as reasons to expect an active season in the central Pacific Basin.
Lowry says dating to 1950, there is a 13 percent increase in the chance of a named storm to track within 100 miles of the Hawaiian Islands during an El Nino year compared to a neutral year.

MORE: Hurricane Iniki, 1992

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