Remnants of Erika Pose Flash Flood Threat For Florida; Watches in Effect

Jon Erdman
Published: August 30,2015
Tropical Storm Erika is no more, as it officially dissipated Saturday morning over a hostile environment in the Caribbean Sea near eastern Cuba. What's left of the system is a poorly organized trough of low pressure, which will move northward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico the next day or so.
(RECAP: Tropical Storm Erika)

Florida Flood Watches

Regional Radar

Rainfall Outlook

Despite Erika's demise, its remnant moisture will still be drawn northward into parts of the southeast U.S., including Florida, into early week. This is due to upper-air winds around high pressure southwest of Bermuda and a southward dip in the jet stream over the northern Gulf of Mexico.
This large-scale atmospheric setup will also bring locally heavy rain to parts of the Southeast, and its impacts may persist for several days into the new week ahead.
This will result in several impacts in the coming days across Florida and portions of the Southeast coast. Here are some highlights:

• Flash flood watches have been issued for much of central and southern Florida, as well as southeastern Georgia. The watches remain in effect into Monday.
• Gusty winds will accompany the showers and thunderstorms at times.
• A moderate or high risk of rip currents and dangerous boating conditions are also expected along parts of the Florida, Georgia and Carolina coastline.

It is difficult to pinpoint exactly which locations will see the heaviest rainfall on any given day, but a general swath from the Florida peninsula to the coastal plain of the Carolinas may see heavy rainfall through the first half of the new week.
(FORECAST: Miami | Daytona Beach)
While this sounds like welcome news to parts of South Florida and the Deep South currently in drought, rain rates of several inches per hour in the heaviest rain clusters would quickly trigger flash flooding. As of Saturday night, some areas had already picked up more than 4 inches of rain, just to the south of Orlando.
About 5 inches of rain was measured in southeast Florida near Cooper City and Weston in the 24 hours ending 11 a.m. EDT Sunday and near St. Augustine, Florida 4.3 inches of rain was reported on Sunday. Farther south, Miami recorded just under 3 inches of rain over the weekend. In addition, a thunderstorm wind gust of 51 mph was reported northwest of Key West at Smith Shoal Light.
(MORE: Could Erika Quench Three Droughts?)
Street flooding was also reported due to the heavy rainfall in Gainesville, Florida as well as near St. Augustine on Sunday evening.
Parts of central Florida, particularly around the Tampa/St. Pete metro area, were soaked with heavy rain in recent weeks. Therefore, any clusters of heavy rain, there, would quickly trigger flash flooding and worsen existing river flooding.

Erika's Flooding History

Intense rainfall impacted the Dominican Republic on Friday, with a personal weather station in Barahona reporting over 24 inches of rain. That station also reported an astonishing 8.80 inches of rain in one hour from 8 p.m. to 9 p.m. Friday.
A band of torrential rain also resulted in deadly flash flooding on the island of Dominica in the Lesser Antilles, Thursday. Roads were washed out, homes were damaged and an airport flooded.
(MORE: Flooding Hits Dominica)
Canefield Airport near the capital of Roseau, Dominica, picked up 12.64 inches (322.4 millimeters) of rain in a 12-hour period ending just before 2 p.m. EDT Thursday.
Bands of locally heavy rain currently over Haiti will shift to parts of Cuba, Jamaica and the possibly the Bahamas by late-day Saturday.
Historically, some of the highest death tolls with Caribbean tropical cyclones have occurred in these situations.
The National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico, said some parts of the island had already picked up 3 to 4.5 inches of rainfall in Erika's rainbands as of early Friday morning.

MORE: Tropical Storm Erika (PHOTOS)