Tropical System May Brew in Gulf of Mexico Early This Week

By Brian Lada, Meteorologist

June 13,2015; 9:45PM,EDT

 

 

The tropics will begin to show signs of life in the Gulf of Mexico early this week, putting lives and property in danger across Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Arkansas.
A disturbance moving from the Yucatan Peninsula over the Gulf of Mexico will have a window of opportunity to organize itself late in the weekend and into the first part of the new week, potentially becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm.

Fortunately, this disturbance is expected to remain relatively weak and should be a far cry from a powerful, destructive hurricane.
According to AccuWeather Meteorologist Rob Richards, "It's rather unlikely that an organized system arises from this, but it is possible."
If a tropical storm were to develop, it would take the name of Bill.
This does not mean that people across the region should let their guard down as it can still bring a wide range of impacts.
"Whether or not the low becomes a tropical system, there will be a lot of moisture on the way for the United States," said Richards.
RELATED:
AccuWeather Hurricane Center
South Central United States Interactive Radar
More Rain to Renew Plains, Midwest Flooding Concerns
Flooding is likely to be the most widespread danger with this system with the potential for significant flooding to occur where the heaviest rain falls.
Several inches of rain are likely to fall over a wide swath of the southern Plains and Gulf Coast through Tuesday, with the heaviest rain focusing on eastern Texas, western Louisiana and Arkansas.
This can create major flooding issues across the region, especially following all of the rain and flooding that occurred over the southern Plains during the month of May.

At this time, the likelihood that an organized tropical system will develop across the Atlantic behind this low in the Gulf remains low.
Strong wind shear, winds higher in the atmosphere that tear storms apart, and dry air coming off the Sahara Desert of Africa will continue to provide unfavorable strengthening conditions for tropical waves pushing from the Canary Islands to the Caribbean Sea.
The wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico remains lighter; in combination with the warm gulf waters, the more favorable conditions are allowing for this low to develop.
AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Courtney Spamer contributed content to this story.