By Eric Leister, Meteorologist
June 13,2015; 9:55PM,EDT
The third tropical depression of the year formed south of Mexico on Wednesday and strengthened into Tropical Storm Carlos on Thursday. On Saturday morning Carlos strengthened into a hurricane.
A track toward the northwest is expected to continue right into early next week. This track will be over very warm ocean waters and light to moderate wind shear which will allow Carlos to strengthen further into Monday.
The current forecast track would keep the strengthening storm from making landfall in Mexico; however, Carlos will pass close enough to Mexico that heavy rainfall will be possible, mainly along the coast.
Even though the Carlos will be strengthening, it will remain far enough offshore to limit a significant damaging wind threat. The area with the highest threat for damaging wind will be from Puerto Vallarta to Manzanillo.
The main threat will continue to be flooding rainfall with areas from Acapulco to Puerto Vallarta in the highest threat zone. Mudslides are possible as well due to the rugged terrain of the region.
In addition to the life-threatening rainfall, dangerous surf will be seen in many resort cities along the southwestern coast of Mexico.
RELATED:
Blanca Makes Record Landfall on Baja California Peninsula
AccuWeather Hurricane Center
Mexico Weather Center
While continuing on a northwest track next week, the Carlos will encounter cooler waters as it moves south of Baja California. Much like Blanca, these cooler waters will act to weaken the cyclone significantly prior to a potential landfall in Baja California. It is also possible that Carlos weakens over the open waters of the Eastern Pacific with very little or no impacts to southern Baja California.
Anyone living in or traveling to areas from southwestern Mexico to Baja California should closely monitor the movement of this tropical threat over the next few days.
Content contributed by AccuWeather Meteorologist Alyson Hoegg and Adam Douty
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