Winter Storm to Bring Snow to the West, First Accumulating Snow to the Northern Plains, Snow to Interior Northeast

November 15,2016
An expansive winter storm will bring snow and wind to the mountain West, northern Plains, upper Midwest, Great Lakes and interior Northeast through the upcoming weekend - a sharp November reality check after recent record warmth.
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The instigator for this is a bullish upper-level southward plunge of the jet stream which is pivoting into West Coast, and will surge eastward across the country.

Forecast Jet Stream

Ahead of that feature, an area of low pressure will form at the surface over the Plains, and then intensify as it tracks into the northern Great Lakes late this week. By this weekend, a secondary area of low pressure may form over Québec or far northern New England.
Cold air will be drawn southward out of Canada on the backside of this low-pressure system.
This Canadian air will be sufficiently cold to dump snowfall along its journey in parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes, in addition to blanketing the mountain West with some sorely-needed early-season snowfall.
(MORE: Snow Cover Is Virtually Absent From the Lower 48 States, a Mid-November Record Low)
High winds may accompany the snow in the northern Plains, creating dangerous driving conditions due to poor visibility and snow-covered roadways.
Then, a round of snow is expected in the interior Northeast this weekend, with some enhancement from the Great Lakes.
Here's the general timing for the snowfall as the storm system moves east, followed by an early look at possible accumulations.
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Tuesday Night-Wednesday Forecast

Wednesday's Forecast

Snow levels will plunge in the Cascades and Sierra Nevada beginning later Tuesday.
Interior higher elevations in the West will see snow Wednesday into Wednesday night, from the northern Rockies to Utah's Wasatch.
Since colder air will move in as the storm system advances east, some higher-elevation locations may see rain initially before changing to snow.
(MORE: November Reality Check on the Horizon: Colder Temperatures Coming)

Thursday-Friday Forecast

Thursday's Forecast

Snow will then spread into the High Plains and northern Plains of Montana, Wyoming, the western Dakotas and western Nebraska, as well as the high country of Colorado Thursday. Winds will also intensify in these regions, producing areas of reduced visibility.
Thursday night into Friday, any rain will change to snow in the eastern Dakotas, northern and central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. As the surface low intensifies, strong north to northwest winds could produce blizzard conditions in open country. Travel could become increasingly treacherous and some road closures are possible.

Friday's Forecast

This Weekend

This weekend, a multi-day period of lake-effect/lake-enhanced snow is likely over the Great Lakes snowbelts – the first real such event this season – as a gyre of low pressure spirals over eastern Canada.
(MORE: 7-day National Forecast Maps | The Science Behind Lake-Effect Snow)
Moisture wrapping around that secondary, sprawling Québec low will also wring out snow not just over the higher elevations of the Northeast, but also in some lower elevations of the interior from West Virginia to the Mohawk Valley. This snow may even continue through Monday in some areas.

Sunday's Forecast

How Much Snow Will Fall?

We are most certain of significant snow accumulations in the Cascades, Siskiyous, Biterroots, Tetons and Bighorn Ranges. Accumulations in excess of 6 inches are most likely in these areas. Lighter accumulations are expected in the Sierra, Wasatch and high country of Colorado.

Forecast Rain/Snow Through Thursday: West

In the northern Plains and upper Midwest, the best chance of heavy snow appears to be in a swath from parts of the eastern Dakotas to northern Minnesota.
As we mentioned earlier, strong winds could lead to blizzard conditions in open country Friday and Friday night.
(MORE: When the First Snow of the Season Typically Falls)

Snowfall Outlook

In the Northeast this weekend, the heaviest accumulations are possible in the higher elevations of the Adirondacks to the Appalachians of West Virginia, though some accumulating snow is possible in lower elevations inland from Interstate 95 from northern New England to West Virginia.
This will certainly be a big change after October and early November's record warmth across the Rockies, Plains and upper Midwest.
For many cities east of the Rockies, this would be the season's first accumulating snow. Here's a list of the average first date of accumulating snow in those locations:

• Cheyenne, Wyoming: October 2
• Lander, Wyoming: September 30
• Rapid City, South Dakota: October 16
• Bismarck, North Dakota: October 26
• Fargo, North Dakota: November 2
• International Falls, Minnesota: October 18
• Marquette, Michigan: October 13

Be sure to check back with weather.com for updates throughout the week as we iron out the details on this potential winter storm.
(MORE: Winter Storm Names for 2016-17)

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