Record Southeast Rainless Streaks May Be Snapped Later This Week, But Won't Provide Big Drought Relief

Jon Erdman
Published: November 15,2016
Record, month-plus long dry streaks continue, but there is hope for the first rain since September in the worst-affected parts of the drought-ridden Southeast later this week.
Some locations haven't seen measurable rain since late September. Chief among these streaks is Alabama's most-populous city.
No measurable rain (at least .01 inches) has been tallied at Birmingham's Shuttlesworth International Airport since Sept. 18, approaching a two-month-long dry streak, topping their previous longest dry streak on record – 52 straight days – from fall 1924.
Nine minutes of sprinkles Nov. 4 and another bout of sprinkles on Oct. 16 has been the entirety of Birmingham's rainfall so far this fall.
Anniston, Alabama, and Rome, Georgia, have dry streaks now approaching 50 days. Several cities in the Carolinas had not had rain for over a month through Nov. 12, before showers arrived on Sunday.

Streaks Without Measurable Rain
Cities in Red Have Tied or Set a New Record Dry Streak (Data: ACIS)

	Streak
Anniston, Alabama	49 days (through Nov. 14)	Previous record: 38 days ending July 1, 1988
Rome, Georgia	49 days (through Nov. 13)	Previous record: October 10, 1897
Greenville, South Carolina	36 days	Streak ended Nov. 12
Charlotte, North Carolina	35 days	Streak ended Nov. 12
Columbia, South Carolina	35 days	Streak ended Nov. 12
Charleston, South Carolina	35 days	Streak ended Nov. 12

Until Sunday, the four cities in the Carolinas above hadn't seen any measurable rain since Hurricane Matthew.
Downtown Charleston, South Carolina, picked up 8.2 inches of rain in two days – Oct. 7-8 – during Matthew, but hadn't seen a drop of rain until November 13.
Mobile, Alabama (42 straight days), tied its previous record streak which had stood since 1874. Light Election Day rain in both Mobile and Pensacola, Florida (41 straight days), snapped streaks.

Estimated 30-day rainfall ending at 8 a.m. EDT on November 4, 2016. Dearth of rainfall in western Georgia, Alabama and the western Florida panhandle is denoted by tan shading.
(NOAA/NWS)

Mobile failed to record any precipitation in October for only the second month in records dating to 1871. The only other month this occurred was Oct. 1884, during which their record dry streak of 42 straight days was set.
It has been an odd turn of events for this stretch of the Gulf Coast. As of mid-April, Mobile had tallied its record wettest year-to-date.

Drought 'Rapidly' Worsens

Going well over a month without rain, coupled with record-smashing heat, quickly plunged a large part of the Southeast into a worsening drought, reaching exceptional levels in parts of Alabama, Tennessee and Georgia.
Reservoir levels have plunged, triggering major water restrictions. Nov. 4, a stage 4 extreme drought emergency was declared in the city of Birmingham.
A state of emergency has been issued in North Carolina due to the wildfires. Winds transported wildfire smoke through parts of several states from Georgia and Alabama to Ohio, Kentucky and Florida, among other states.
(MORE: Latest News on the Southeast Wildfires)

Drought Monitor analysis (as of Nov. 8, 2016) and current wildfire locations (as of Nov. 14, 2016).
(NDMC, USDA, NOAA, NIFC)

Incredibly, Hurricanes Hermine and then Matthew both soaked parts of north Florida, eastern Georgia and the Carolinas, but both delivered little or no rain to Alabama, the western Florida panhandle and the Tennessee Valley.

Any Relief Ahead?

The next chance of rain for the drought-suffering Southeast will arrive starting Friday as a cold front sweeps through.
(MAPS: 7-Day National Rain Forecasts)
That said, the front's quick movement and lack of deep Gulf of Mexico moisture ahead of it may minimize rainfall totals.

Drought Status, Five-Day Rainfall Outlook

For now, rainfall totals look to remain less than 1 inch from this front in the Southeast. In fact, some parts of the Southeast may not see much rain at all with this front.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been an incurable weather geek since a tornado narrowly missed his childhood home in Wisconsin at age 7.