Records Are In Jeopardy For Latest First Freeze in the Midwest

Linda Lam
Published: November 7,2016
Another side effect of the record warmth that has dominated much of the U.S. since October is the lacking of freezing temperatures. Many cities in the Midwest have yet to see the thermometer drop to the 32-degree mark and now records are in jeopardy.
A persistent upper-level ridge of high pressure has brought warmer-than-average temperatures to the Plains, Midwest, South, and at times the Northeast. There does not appear to be a pattern change until mid-November at the earliest.
Numerous daily record highs were set at the end of October and beginning of November and a few monthly record highs were even broken for November. More record highs were set over the weekend, including in Minneapolis which hit 73 degrees Saturday, and in Milwaukee which hit 70 degrees Sunday. This trend now has its sights set on breaking records for latest first freeze.
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Temperatures below freezing have been hard to come by lately in the contiguous U.S. You need to head towards northern New England and some of the higher elevations of the inter-mountain West to find freezing conditions. Consequently, locations that would have normally seen their first freeze of the season are still waiting.

Current Temperatures

Minneapolis is one of the cities that has yet to see temperatures dip to 32 degrees. On Monday, Nov. 7, Minneapolis tied the record for latest freeze, set more than 100 years ago in 1900. This record will be broken Tuesday and likely for the next several days, as well. Temperatures may get close to the freezing mark Saturday morning, but even then the mercury may stay above 32 degrees.

In addition, Minneapolis may also break the record for longest streak of days above freezing. Through Nov. 7 the current streak is at 209 days and the record is 215 days set in 2010.
It is also interesting to note that Minneapolis has only seen their first freeze in November seven times since 1873; the last this occurred was in 1958.
La Crosse, Wisconsin, will also see its latest first freeze since the temperature stayed above 32 degrees through Nov. 7. That record could be extended right through late week before temperatures flirt with the freezing mark this weekend.

Dates of latest first freeze on record and average freeze based on data from 1981-2010.

One location that has already set a record for longest stretch between freezes, according to ACIS, is Grand Rapids, Michigan. Through Nov. 7 the streak is 209 days and the previous record was 198 days set in 2000. They have yet to hit the freezing mark so the streak continues. They may also break their record for latest freeze, which currently stands at Nov. 14, but temperatures may get close to 32 degrees Saturday morning, which would just miss the record by two days.
Another Michigan city that could set a new record for latest freeze is Detroit. The current record is Nov. 15, which was set in 1946. The Motor City may come up just short of that record with lows around 32 degrees this weekend.
Madison, Wisconsin, is another location that may come close to their latest freeze record. The current latest freeze is Nov. 12, and lows may slip to near 32 degrees by Saturday morning.
Another city to watch is Des Moines, Iowa, where lows are expected to approach 32 degrees late this week. The current record is Nov. 13 so it will be interesting to see how close to the freezing mark temperatures drop.
For several other Midwest cities, the record latest first freeze is still more than a couple weeks away. This includes Kansas City, Missouri, and Chicago, which both have records for latest freeze on Nov. 24, as well as St. Louis, Indianapolis and Cleveland which have their latest freezes currently on Nov. 27.
(MORE: November Outlook)

November temperature outlook from The Weather Company, an IBM business.

Even if records are not broken, many locations will see their first freeze a month or more later than their average first freeze.
Farther east, many cities in the interior Northeast have already seen their first freeze, but along the East Coast they are still waiting for the winter chill. This is not unusual though, as Boston, New York, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C. all normally see their first freeze in November, with their record latest freezes occurring in December.
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There are indications than a southward dip in the jet stream may develop over the East in mid-November, which may bring some colder temperatures to the region. It will be interesting to see if some East Coast cities see their first freeze before parts of the Midwest.

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