November Reality Check on the Horizon: Cooler Temperatures Coming to the West, Plains, Midwest and South

Brian Donegan
Published: November 15,2016
The mild weather we've seen so far this month will continue to start the week, but a November reality check is on the horizon for much of the country.
Highs in the 60s and 70s will persist early this week in parts of the Plains and may occur, at times, in parts of the upper Midwest.
(MAPS: 10-Day Forecast Highs/Lows)

A northward bulge in the jet stream featuring widespread warmth into midweek will be replaced by a southward plunge of the jet stream by late week and the weekend.

In the meantime, record highs will continue to be threatened the next few days, including (record to beat is shown for each city):

• Tuesday: Lincoln, Nebraska (71 degrees); Phoenix (90 degrees); Salt Lake City (70 degrees)
• Wednesday: Colorado Springs, Colorado (74 degrees); Cheyenne, Wyoming (70 degrees); Wichita, Kansas (77 degrees)
• Thursday: Springfield, Illinois (75 degrees); Topeka, Kansas (76 degrees)

This warmth will begin to break down first in the West by midweek, and then in the Plains, Midwest and parts of the South late in the week as a strong frontal system and potential winter storm sweep cold air back into the region.
(MORE: Winter Storm to Bring Snow to the West, First Accumulating Snow to Parts of the Northern Plains, Great Lakes)

November Reality Check on the Horizon

Kansas City, Missouri, will see highs in the 70s through Thursday but only in the 40s to end the week. Chicago will be in the 60s Thursday and Friday, but Saturday will struggle to reach 40 degrees. The high in Minneapolis will be near 60 Tuesday-Thursday, but Saturday's temperatures will be stuck in the 30s.
This means much of the Plains and Midwest will begin the week 10 to 25 degrees above average, but late this week and into the weekend, those areas will end up 5 to 15 degrees below average as the pattern change takes hold.
(MORE: Snow Cover Is Virtually Absent From the Lower 48 States, a Mid-November Record Low)
The South will also turn much cooler by the weekend. Little Rock, Arkansas, will be in the 70s Tuesday-Thursday, but Saturday's high will only be in the 50s. Nashville, Tennessee, is another southern city that will cool down significantly by the weekend, with highs approaching 80 degrees on Thursday and struggling to reach 55 degrees Saturday.

Cooler Temperatures Ahead

Why Has it Been So Warm?

Meteorologist Jonathan Belles wrote an earlier column explaining why the weather over the Lower 48 states has been so "quiet" recently. Essentially, the reason for the lull in stormy weather over the U.S. is also the reason for the recent record warmth. Namely, the north Pacific and Gulf of Alaska have been even stormier than their typical reputation.

This is the jet-stream pattern responsible for the recent record warmth in the northern tier of states and Canada.

Anchored in the northeastern Pacific Ocean, the jet stream's southward plunge, or trough, forces a broad area of higher pressure aloft, known as a ridge, downstream over western Canada and the northern U.S. Not only does that pump warmer air northward, but winds flowing down the slopes of the Rockies also further warm the air to the east of the mountains.
According to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information, among reporting stations with at least a 30-year period of record, there have been 47 daily record highs tied or broken for every record low over the last month or so.
For monthly records, the ratio is an even more astounding 120 warm records for every cold record.

Daily and Monthly U.S. Warm, Cold Records Tied or Broken in the Last 30 Days
As of Nov. 10, 2016 (Source: NOAA/NCEI)

	Daily Records	Monthly Records
Warm	9,989	601
Cold	211	5

Here are some of the record-warm highlights since last Tuesday:

• All-time November record highs were set Nov. 8 in both Bellingham, Washington (73 degrees), and Vancouver, British Columbia (about 67 degrees).
• Seattle hit 70 degrees on Nov. 8. The previous latest-in-season 70-degree day in the Emerald City was Nov. 4, 1949 and 1980.
• Roughly four dozen daily record highs were set Nov. 8 in western Canada alone, some topping the previous daily record by up to 9 degrees Celsius.
• Bismarck, North Dakota, reached 75 degrees on Nov. 9, their warmest so late in the season.
• International Falls, Minnesota – the self-proclaimed "Icebox of the Nation" – set daily record highs three of four days from Nov. 6-9, reaching 71 degrees on Nov. 7, or roughly the average Labor Day high.
• Five different locations in Michigan's Upper Peninsula topped 70 degrees on Nov. 10, including a high of 73 degrees in Stonington.
• Another 29 daily record highs were set in Canada on Nov. 11, including Banff, which reached 60 degrees (15.6 degrees Celsius). Churchill, Manitoba, and Yellowknife in the Northwest Territories both almost reached 40 degrees (4.2 degrees Celsius).
• International Falls, Minnesota, set a daily record of 63 degrees on Nov. 13. This was also the seventh day with temperatures 60 degrees or higher in the city this November, exceeding 1981 for the most number of days that has happened in the month of November.
• Grand Forks, North Dakota, set a daily record high of 65 degrees on Nov. 13. Only one other day has been warmer there this late in November – a 66-degree reading on Nov. 15, 1939.

MORE: America's 50 Hottest Winter Cities