Severe Thunderstorms with Damaging Winds and Large Hail Threaten the Midwest This Week

Tom Moore
Published: July 10,2016
Severe thunderstorms, primarily with damaging winds and large hail, are expected to hit the northern Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Sunday-Tuesday. A few tornadoes are also possible.
Flash flooding will also be a concern to start this week as thunderstorm complexes unleash heavy rainfall in a short period of time.
The severe weather threat is being triggered by a strong area of surface low pressure and a vigorous jet stream disturbance moving into those regions.
(MORE: National Interactive Radar Map | Differences Between a Watch and a Warning)

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

Below are the latest daily forecast details followed by more information on setup for the stormy weather.

Severe Weather Forecast

Sunday

• Forecast: The potential for severe thunderstorms will stretch from parts of eastern Montana into the Dakotas and Minnesota.
• Threats: Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats, but a few tornadoes are also possible.
• Cities: Glasgow, Montana | Bismarck, North Dakota | Rapid City, South Dakota | Fargo, North Dakota

Sunday's Thunderstorm Forecast

Monday

• Forecast: The potential for severe thunderstorms shifts eastward and will stretch from the eastern Dakotas, Minnesota and western Wisconsin southward into parts of Iowa, northern Missouri, eastern Nebraska and northeast Kansas.
• Threats: Damaging winds and large hail can be expected, and a few tornadoes are possible.
• Cities: Grand Forks, North Dakota | Sioux Falls, South Dakota | Omaha, Nebraska | Duluth, Minnesota | Minneapolis

Monday's Thunderstorm Forecast

Tuesday

• Forecast: Some severe weather may continue on Tuesday as the cold front marches east from upper Michigan southwestward into parts of Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa and northern Missouri.
• Threats: Damaging winds, large hail and locally heavy rainfall.
• Cities: Chicago | Des Moines | Milwaukee

Tuesday's Thunderstorm Forecast

Setup For Severe Weather

An exaggerated jet stream pattern will set the stage for severe weather to develop on Sunday. A significant cold trough of low pressure (dip in the jet stream) will slide eastward from the northern Rockies. Meanwhile, a very warm high-pressure ridge (bulge in the jet stream) will prevail up through the Great Lakes.

Jet Stream Forecast Monday (GFS Model)

The area between these two prominent features will be favorable for severe thunderstorm development, as a southerly wind flow transports moisture northward. On Sunday, severe weather is most likely in the northern Plains, and on Monday, the trough pushes eastward and the severe threat will shift to the Upper Midwest.
By Tuesday, the trough will weaken so severe weather will likely be spotty across the Great Lakes region.

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MORE: Plains, Midwest Severe Weather and Flooding