Waves of thunderstorms to pave way for uptick in Atlantic tropical storms, hurricanes during August

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist

July 28,2016; 10:55PM,EDT

 

 

Rounds of showers and thunderstorms moving westward off the coast of Africa may pave the way for future tropical systems over the Atlantic Ocean in the weeks ahead.
"Weak disturbances have been moving westward from Africa over the past couple of months," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
"Up to this point, there has been too much dry air and dust from the Sahara Desert for these systems to develop," Kottlowski said, adding that an extensive amount of dry air is not uncommon during June and July over much of the Atlantic.
In this image taken on June 24, 2014, extensive dust (brown) from the Sahara Desert can be seen extending from Africa on the right to South America on the left. (NASA Earth Observatory/Satellite Photo)
The circulation around an unusually strong and large area of high pressure over the central Atlantic has been scooping up the dry air and dust and distributing it across a large part of the basin.
Over time, the systems could overcome these factors, especially as successive systems create a train of moisture in their wake.
With progressively more moisture available and less dry air, the chance for development of tropical systems originating from Africa will increase, as is often the case, moving forward in August and September.
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A couple of systems, which emerged from the west coast of Africa recently, will wander slowly toward the west-northwest into early August.
Both systems will continue to struggle with dry air, minimizing the extent of showers and thunderstorms associated with the the system.
There will be a brief window that either system could overcome dry air and strengthen into a tropical depression this weekend.

Beyond this weekend, winds surrounding the systems may become too disruptive for further development.
"We expect the system to reach the Lesser Antilles around the middle of next week with an uptick in showers and thunderstorms," Kottlowski said.
Additional systems will continue to roll westward through much of the balance of hurricane season, which concludes on Nov. 30.