U.S. Warm Records Are Trouncing Cold Records by 4 to 1 Margin in 2016

Jon Erdman
Published: July 27,2016
The number of daily warm records set in the U.S. so far in 2016 has more than quadrupled the comparable number of daily cold records.
As of July 24, there have been 34,289 daily high and warm daily low temperature records tied or broken so far this year, according to data from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information.
Conversely, there have been only 8,233 daily low and cold daily high temperature records tied or broken in the first six-plus months of 2016.
(MORE: First Six Months of 2016 Were Globe's Record Warmest)
NOAA found the first six months of 2016 were the third-warmest such period on record in the Lower 48 states, topped only by January through June 2012 and the same period in 2006.
In 2015, there were just over 50,000 more daily warm records set or tied than cold records. A colder 2014 featured over 8,500 more daily cold records than warm records in the U.S., primarily in the nation's midsection and parts of the South.

Warm Squeezing Out Cold Records

This is consistent with a 2009 study by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Climate Central, NOAA and a former meteorologist at The Weather Channel, Guy Walton.
Lead by NCAR senior scientist Dr. Gerald Meehl, the study found the ratio of warm records to cold records in the U.S. had risen since sharply since the 1970s, primarily due to fewer cold records relative to warm records.
That ratio was just shy of 2.5 warm records for every cold record in 2015 and, as we stated earlier, is over a 4-to-1 ratio so far in 2016.
Of those warm records over the past two-plus years, 59 percent of them were record warm daily low temperatures (102,164 from 2014 through July 24, 2016), with the other 41 percent being record daily high temperatures (70,009).
These findings are consistent with years of research that have found higher nighttime temperatures are one facet of the planet's warming.
With unchecked planetary warming, this ratio is only expected to rise. The Meehl et al. study concluded this warm-to-cold record ratio could rise to 20-to-1 by the 2050s and 50-to-1 by the end of the century if emissions go unchecked.
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been an incurable weather geek since a tornado narrowly missed his childhood home in Wisconsin at age 7.