By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist
July 27,2016; 11:11PM,EDT
As July draws to a close, a storm system swinging up from the Deep South will bring downpours to the northeastern U.S. and break the back of an extended heat wave.
Downpours will extend northeastward from the lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday into Thursday night. Locally gusty thunderstorms will erupt along with the drenching downpours from parts of Virginia to southern New Jersey during this time.
From Thursday night into Sunday, there is the potential for enough rain to ease abnormally dry and drought conditions.
Cloud cover and downpours associated with the storm system will cause high temperatures to trend from the 90s F to the 80s in most locations.
The storm will take a general path from the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coast to the Tennessee Valley, across the central Appalachians then off the New England coast.
"The exact track of the storm system will be a challenge to predict," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson.
At this time, the most likely locations for heavy rainfall will extend from parts of Kentucky to southern portions of Indiana and Ohio, much of West Virginia, northern and western Virginia, northern Maryland, central and southern Pennsylvania, Delaware, New Jersey, southeastern New York state and southern New England.
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Within this swath, there is the potential for a general 1-2 inches of rain with localized amounts of 3-4 inches over the span of a few days. Despite the dry conditions in part of this swath, some locations could experience flash and urban flooding.
The core of the heaviest rain could shift farther north or south, depending on the track of the storm.
"This time of the year, the heaviest rain tends to fall near and south of the storm track, where the warmest and most humid air lies and where thunderstorms are likely to form and repeat," Anderson said.
The storm system has the potential to bring more rainfall than that which occurred on Monday in parts of the Northeast.
Demonstrators
take shelter from a downpour in Franklin Delano Roosevelt Park, Monday,
July 25, 2016, in Philadelphia, during the first day of the Democratic
National Convention. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)Because of the random nature of thunderstorms, some locations could still get missed by the big rain.
Later this weekend into early next week, in the wake of the storm system, humidity will lower significantly over the interior Northeast. In the mid-Atlantic, however, humidity levels will lower only slightly.
At least for a couple of days following the rainfall, the moist ground will tend to prevent extremely high temperatures during the daytime. The air at night may tend to remain muggy.
"Despite a little edge taken off the high temperatures by early next week, it will still feel steamy in much of the Northeast," according to AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok.
Factoring in highs and lows, temperatures may continue to average slightly above normal in most locations during the first week of August.
"We expect another surge of heat and potentially a long-lasting heat wave in the Northeast around the second week of August," Pastelok said.
David Colantuono ·
Works at Unemployed
Part of this, I like. Part of this, I don't like.
I like that we're getting rain as we're also in a bad drought here in New Jersey. Much of the Northern half of the state is experiencing a moderate drought and it seems to be getting worse. We could really use the rainfall.
Take a wild guess what I DON'T like. It should be fairly easy, considering my past comments on past articles.
I like that we're getting rain as we're also in a bad drought here in New Jersey. Much of the Northern half of the state is experiencing a moderate drought and it seems to be getting worse. We could really use the rainfall.
Take a wild guess what I DON'T like. It should be fairly easy, considering my past comments on past articles.
Michael Manden ·
"'We
expect another surge of heat and potentially a long-lasting heat wave
in the Northeast around the second week of August,' Pastelok said."
Really?
You just have to put something negative at the end to get people worried, don't you.
Here's what you predict for the highs in at least my part of the NE, during the second and third weeks of August: 84, 84, 75, 82, 85, 87, 88, 81, 81, 78, 82. 84, and 82.
And, as for the last two weeks of August, only two days will be warmer than the average, with highs of 86....See More
Really?
You just have to put something negative at the end to get people worried, don't you.
Here's what you predict for the highs in at least my part of the NE, during the second and third weeks of August: 84, 84, 75, 82, 85, 87, 88, 81, 81, 78, 82. 84, and 82.
And, as for the last two weeks of August, only two days will be warmer than the average, with highs of 86....See More
Michael Manden ·
First there's this:
"Later this weekend into early next week, in the wake of the storm system, humidity will lower significantly over the interior Northeast. In the mid-Atlantic, however, humidity levels will lower only slightly."
Then, there's this:
"'Despite a little edge taken off the high temperatures by early next week, it will still feel steamy in much of the Northeast,' according to AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok."
Again, one has to ask, which is it?...See More
"Later this weekend into early next week, in the wake of the storm system, humidity will lower significantly over the interior Northeast. In the mid-Atlantic, however, humidity levels will lower only slightly."
Then, there's this:
"'Despite a little edge taken off the high temperatures by early next week, it will still feel steamy in much of the Northeast,' according to AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok."
Again, one has to ask, which is it?...See More
Michael Sokolowski ·
Bring it on. We need the rain desparately.
1
Cory Morrison ·
Works at Fortinos
Why
am I not surprised that these storms may be south of the Great Lakes
once again? I am enjoying the weather this summer and everything, but we
are about to enter a severe drought.
Daniel T Watson ·
The dry heat has been great for tomatoes and such, here in Ithaca, NY
Mike Heyer ·
South
central Pa needs rain badly. We live on the south slope of the South
mountain & every t -storm seems to miss us .Does the mountain have a
effect on the storms ???
Alex Sosnowski ·
In
light winds on a humid day in the summer, storms will tend to pop up
over the ridges and weaken moving away. If you are downwind of a
mountain, there can also be a rain-shadow effect. Showers and storms
Friday/Saturday should be more randomly
scattered in that part of Pa., so much better chance of some juicy downpours, when compared to recent weeks.
scattered in that part of Pa., so much better chance of some juicy downpours, when compared to recent weeks.
Suzanne G. Stimpson
I
hope some rain comes. We are 7 inches below normal with water
restrictions in our town in place. (west of Boston MA) Having lived in
California, I know how to save water. Collecting water from the AC and
dehumidifier. Save all that water from washing fruits and veggies. Final
rinse water from my washing machine is fine also. All to save outdoor
shrubs from dying. Short showers are a no brainer. Already have low
flush toilets, etc.
Anders Updale ·
Even
if the the temperatures don't reach 90 or above, the more humid the air
with temperatures even only in the 80's for peoples bodies if they're
exercising outdoors is it equivilent to a heatwave?
Ron Schwiebert
Here's hoping for a couple of inches in Northwest Ohio.
Alex Sosnowski ·
That's going to be tough, but perhaps a downpour or two.
Donnie Boston ·
Boston needs rain badly. In a severe drought here, but please, not on the weekend!
Michael Manden ·
Your
problem there in Boston is worse than mine, obviously: I've not been
able to take advantage of this hot weather to get in some boating. Here
in the Albany, NY area, we've gotten some rain, but could use more
Michael Manden ·
Robin Lee It would be great if Boston got its rain spread out, and not too many inches per hour to cause flooding.
Peter Westin ·
Works at Ithaca College
I am liking this, so I hope the heat will be there until it finally breaks down eventually.
Nora O'donnell Wilson ·
Why
is it always Southern Ohio gets all the precip while the northern and
even the Central part of the state keeps getting little or even nothing
at all?The upper 2/3s of Ohio needs as much rain as they can get. Its
like I 70 corridor has a force field/wall/shield 20, 30 miles below it
that prevents precip getting into Columbus and points north. This is a
major issue in the winter time quite often with winter storms and I
can't blame the "Urban Heat Island" effect either. There are many rural
areas in the uppers two thirds of the state that are far away enough
from the cities/urban areas and they seem to miss out on the precip as
well.
Alex Sosnowski ·
I would not write-off northern areas just yet, as a second system may drop in later in the period and produce some downpours.
Bill Palmer ·
Works at Binghamton University
Alex
Sosnowski any hope for some decent rain in S. Central NY (ie,
Binghamton)? This has been one of the hottest and driest summers we've
had in many years in these parts...
Alex Sosnowski ·
Bill Palmer Might be on the northern edge there. I would not expect a great deal.
Bill Palmer ·
Works at Binghamton University
Alex Sosnowski--thanks for not getting my hopes up too much!
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