Severe Weather, Including Tornadoes, Expected In The Plains Into the Week Ahead

Tom Moore
Published: May 21,2016
May is the month where severe weather can immediately grab weather headlines. After a brief break, conditions will become more favorable for severe weather to erupt in the Plains this weekend, and continue into the new week ahead.
Severe thunderstorms with high winds and large hail are likely to develop. There is also a tornado threat with this event.

Setup For Severe Weather

Severe weather is common in the spring when a southward dip in the jet stream (upper trough) pushes eastward from the Rockies to the Plains states.
That weather pattern will be on display starting this weekend.
A trough of low pressure aloft across the western U.S. will move very slowly eastward this weekend. As disturbances swing around the base of the trough and eject eastward from the Rocky Mountains to the Plains, a surge of deep moisture will ride northward from the warm Gulf of Mexico.
Meanwhile, winds aloft (low level jet) coming out of the south will be increasing in intensity. This combination is an ideal recipe for severe thunderstorms to develop.
Isolated severe thunderstorms will erupt by late Saturday across the High Plains, in mainly unpopulated areas, from eastern Montana and western North Dakota to west Texas.
Look for large hail and damaging winds in a few locations. The tornado threat will be low at that time.

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)
Severe thunderstorm activity will ramp up significantly Sunday as a strong disturbance rides around the base of the western upper trough and swings eastward into the Plains. With all of the moist, unstable air in place across the Plains, storms will become more widespread and the tornado threat will ramp up.
Below is our latest forecast thinking on the timing and magnitude of the upcoming severe weather event starting Sunday.

Severe Weather Forecast

Sunday

• The greatest chance for severe storms will be across the Dakotas and southward through western Oklahoma and west-central Texas. 
• Threats: Large hail and damaging winds. Tornadoes are most possible over parts of Nebraska, and western Kansas.
• Cities: Bismarck | Pierre | Dodge City | Amarillo

Sunday's Thunderstorm Outlook

Monday

• Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of Minnesota and western Wisconsin southward to Oklahoma and Texas.
• Threats: Wind-damaging thunderstorms will be scattered over these areas. There also could be some spotty large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes.
• Cities: Minneapolis | Omaha | Kansas City | Wichita | Okla. City | Dallas

Monday's Thunderstorm Forecast

Snapped An Awesome Shot? Share Your Photo!

If you crave pictures of severe weather, you've found your home here. Upload your photos or video (taking care to only take photos and videos from a safe location) to us and share your experience!
(PHOTO/VIDEO GALLERIES: Severe | Storms)
MORE: Plains Severe Weather - May 9, 2016 (Photo Gallery)