Tropical system may form in northwestern Caribbean, eastern Gulf of Mexico next week

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist

May 31,2016; 9:42PM,EDT

 

 Bonnie unleashed tropical downpours across the Carolinas on Memorial Day weekend, leading to flooding.

Areas from Central America to southeastern Mexico, western Cuba and southern Florida will be on alert into next week as a tropical system may form.
The window for tropical development will reopen about a week after the formation of Tropical Depression 2, which went on to become Tropical Storm Bonnie, near the Carolina coast over Memorial Day weekend.
"We are suspicious about the area near Central America because it is in a region where we often see tropical development during June," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.

Water temperatures in the vicinity are in the lower to middle 80s F (27 to 30 C), which are warm enough to sustain a tropical system.
Warm waters alone are not enough to cause a tropical system to form.
An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak system is forecast to form and drift westward across the Caribbean Sea later this week.

Provided winds aloft remain light over the region, a slow spin could take shape with the showers and thunderstorms.
As a front sags into the Gulf of Mexico and Florida during next week, steering winds could guide that disturbed area toward the northeast, perhaps over western Cuba, southern Florida and the Bahamas.
"Development can sometimes occur in the vicinity of a front that sags into or near the tropics," Kottlowski said.
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"However, because the system has not formed yet and it is likely to remain weak into early next week, a definitive track cannot be ascertained just yet," Kottlowski said. "It is merely something to keep an eye on."
Torrential downpours, gusty squalls and rough seas would be the initial concerns for a tropical system in the early stages of development. Downpours associated with the area of disturbed weather could soak Florida by early next week.
In addition to the potential formation of a tropical system within a few hundred-mile radius of Havana, Cuba, early next week, a weak system forecast over the central Caribbean will also be monitored into this weekend.
"The central Caribbean feature is likely to travel northward near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola but turn northeastward over the Atlantic Ocean and away from land from Saturday to Sunday," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Andrew Mussoline.
The system could enhance downpours in parts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola late this week.
The situation in the tropical Atlantic basin does not warrant changes to travel itinerary at this time. However, interests in the region should continue to monitor the area for potential adverse weather conditions beginning this weekend.
Should either area of disturbed weather become organized and gather enough strength, the next name on the list of tropical storms and hurricanes for the 2016 Atlantic season is Colin, following Tropical Storm Bonnie.
"While Hurricane Alex formed during January 2016, it is probably more accurate to consider the system as the tail end of the 2015 season, rather than an early storm for the 2016 season," Kottlowski said. "We are not figuring Alex into the AccuWeather 2016 Atlantic hurricane season forecast as a result."