Tropical Storm Bonnie Takes Aim At The Southeast Coast

May 28,2016

Tropical Storm Bonnie is on its way to the coast of South Carolina.  Look for rain, some wind, and choppy surf to some of the beaches of the Carolinas and Georgia this Memorial Day holiday weekend.

Here is the latest on Tropical Storm Bonnie.

Highlights 

• Tropical Storm Bonnie was centered around 120 miles southeast of Beaufort, South Carolina and 130 miles south-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina as of late Saturday evening.
• Maximun sustained winds were 45 mph as of late Saturday evening.
• Tropical Storm Bonnie has been stationary but is expected to resume moving to the northwest and then to the north-northwest by early Sunday.
• Bonnie has a small opportunity to strengthen a tad before the center nears or makes landfall Sunday along the South Carolina coast.
• A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the South Carolina coast from the Savannah River to Little River Inlet.
• Areas of rain, gusty winds, dangerous rip currents, some elevated surf, a small storm surge and minor coastal flooding will be the impacts.
• Rainfall totals of three to five inches (locally heavier amounts) could produce localized flooding over parts of South Carolina.
• An isolated tornado or two will be possible from Saturday night to early Sunday over the immediate coastal region from central South Carolina and southern North Carolina.

(MORE: Hurricane Central)

Latest Status

Over the last several days, we've watched this weather system slowly gain organization. Friday afternoon, the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters found that former "Invest 91L" had both a closed circulation - enough west and northwest winds - and sufficiently robust thunderstorm activity near that low-pressure center to designate it a tropical depression.
(MORE: What is an "Invest"?)

Enhanced Satellite, Winds

The National Hurricane Center named Tropical Storm Bonnie on Saturday
Bands of rain ahead of the circulation have moved onshore and pockets of heavy rain have been reported around the southern coast of South Carolina.
(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map

Current Radar

Tropical Storm Bonnie is expected to make landfall around the coast of South Carolina Sunday. It should then weaken to a depression and eventually degenerate to a remnant low.

Projected Path

Watches/Warnings

Potential Impacts

Sunday Forecast

The main impacts from this system will be poor beach and boating conditions, along with locally heavy rain, this weekend.
Those impacts will also include the potential for rip currents and high surf for parts of the Southeast coast during the Memorial Day weekend.
Rip currents, a particular concern in generally good weather when more beach-goers might be tempted to swim, were already spotted Saturday along the Georgia and South Carolina coast.
(INTERACTIVE: Tropical Storm Bonnie Tracker Map)

In addition, waves upwards of 13 feet and winds gusting to tropical storm force are likely in the offshore South Carolina waters Saturday night into Sunday.
(MORE: Holiday Weekend Outlook)
A moisture plume will be pulled north, the northeast along the East Coast Sunday into Monday from the same upper-level steering winds channeling this system into the Carolinas. One to three inches of rainfall are forecast along the low country of South Carolina and coastal North Carolina.
While not directly related to the tropical cyclone itself, this could wring out areas of locally heavy rainfall up and down the Eastern Seaboard from parts of New England to the Carolinas, with local flash flooding possible.

Rainfall Forecast Through Monday Night

If you have plans to hit the beach along the Southeast coast this holiday weekend, we don't suggest canceling plans. Boating conditions may want to be reconsidered. Check back with us at weather.com. We will continue to watch this situation closely, and will provide updates over the next few days.
(FORECAST: Virginia Beach | Hatteras | Myrtle Beach | Daytona Beach)

Southeast Coast is Typically an Early Season Area to Watch

This map shows the typical formation areas and tracks for named storms in June.

The area off the Southeast coast, as well as the Gulf of Mexico and northwest Caribbean, is a part of the Atlantic basin where early-season tropical or subtropical storm development is most likely.
That said, it's not a very active time of year for storms to form compared to the peak August-October period. For example, only one named storm forms during June every other year, on average.
(MORE: Where June Storms Develop)
Recent seasons have had activity before the start of June.
Last May, Tropical Storm Ana formed off the Southeast coast before making landfall near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, with minor impacts.
In 2012 two named storms, Alberto and Beryl, formed during May off the Southeast coast. Beryl would go on to make landfall in northeast Florida, while Alberto moved out to sea.
(MORE: When Hurricane Season Starts Early)

MORE: Hurricanes From Space - Satellite Imagery