Tropical Depression Two Pushes Toward the Southeast Coast; May Become Tropical Storm Bonnie Later Today

May 28,2016

Tropical Depression Two is nearing tropical storm strength as it continues to push northwestward, poised to rain, some wind, and choppy surf to some of the beaches of the Carolinas and Georgia this Memorial Day holiday weekend.

Here is the latest on the depression.

Highlights 

• Tropical Depression Two was centered around 150 miles south-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina as of Saturday afternoon.
• T.D. Two is moving northwest at 10-15 mph. 
• The depression has a small opportunity to strengthen a tad before the center nears or makes landfall Sunday along the South Carolina coast.
• A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the South Carolina coast from the Savannah River to Little River Inlet.
• Areas of rain, gusty winds, rip currents, some elevated surf and, perhaps minor coastal flooding will be the impacts.

(MORE: Hurricane Central)

Latest Status

Over the last few days, we've watched this area of low pressure slowly gain organization. Friday afternoon, the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters found that former "Invest 91L" had both a closed circulation - enough west and northwest winds - and sufficiently robust thunderstorm activity near that low-pressure center to designate it a tropical depression.
(MORE: What is an "Invest"?)

Enhanced Satellite, Winds

However, with a tropical upper-tropospheric trough (a TUTT, or a southward dive in the upper-level wind flow) centered over the Florida peninsula, southeasterly wind shear is currently strong enough to blow any convection away from the center of circulation. This wind shear is not conducive for strengthening.
Despite that, some areas of rain ahead of the circulation has arrived at the coast.
(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map

Current Radar

The latest NHC forecast has a small window for T.D. Two to become Tropical Storm Bonnie just before it nears the South Carolina coast as it passes over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. After that, it may move very slowly near or just onshore the next day or so, eventually degenerating to a remnant low.

Projected Path

Watches/Warnings

Potential Impacts

Sunday Forecast

The main impacts from this system will be poor beach and boating conditions this weekend.
Those impacts will mostly be increased rainfall and the potential for rip currents and high surf for parts of the Southeast coast during the Memorial Day weekend.
Rip currents, a particular concern in generally good weather when more beach-goers might be tempted to swim, were already spotted Saturday along the Georgia and South Carolina coast.

In addition, waves upwards of 13 feet and winds gusting to tropical storm force are likely in the offshore South Carolina waters Saturday night into Sunday.
(MORE: Holiday Weekend Outlook)
A moisture plume will be pulled north, the northeast along the East Coast Sunday into Monday from the same upper-level steering winds channeling this system into the Carolinas. One to three inches of rainfall are forecast along the low country of South Carolina and coastal North Carolina.
While not directly related to the tropical cyclone itself, this could wring out areas of locally heavy rainfall up and down the Eastern Seaboard from parts of New England to the Carolinas, with local flash flooding possible.

Rainfall Forecast Through Monday Night

If you have plans to hit the beach along the Southeast coast this holiday weekend, we don't suggest canceling plans. Boating conditions may want to be reconsidered. Check back with us at weather.com. We will continue to watch this situation closely, and will provide updates over the next few days.
(FORECAST: Virginia Beach | Hatteras | Myrtle Beach | Daytona Beach)

Southeast Coast is Typically an Early Season Area to Watch

This map shows the typical formation areas and tracks for named storms in June.

The area off the Southeast coast, as well as the Gulf of Mexico and northwest Caribbean, is a part of the Atlantic basin where early-season tropical or subtropical storm development is most likely.
That said, it's not a very active time of year for storms to form compared to the peak August-October period. For example, only one named storm forms during June every other year, on average.
(MORE: Where June Storms Develop)
Recent seasons have had activity before the start of June.
Last May, Tropical Storm Ana formed off the Southeast coast before making landfall near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, with minor impacts.
In 2012 two named storms, Alberto and Beryl, formed during May off the Southeast coast. Beryl would go on to make landfall in northeast Florida, while Alberto moved out to sea.
(MORE: When Hurricane Season Starts Early)

MORE: Hurricanes From Space - Satellite Imagery