Severe Weather, Including Tornadoes, Expected This Weekend In The Plains

Tom Moore
Published: May 20,2016
May is the month where severe weather can immediately grab weather headlines. After a brief break, conditions will become more favorable for severe weather to erupt in the Plains this weekend.
Severe thunderstorms with high winds and large hail are likely to develop. There is also a tornado threat with this event. Severe weather is expected to continue into early next week.

Setup For Weekend Severe Weather

Severe weather is common in the spring when a southward dip in the jet stream (upper trough) pushes eastward from the Rockies to the Plains states.
That weather pattern will be on display by this weekend.
A trough of low pressure aloft across the western U.S. will move very slowly eastward this weekend. As disturbances swing around the base of the trough and eject eastward from the Rocky Mountains to the Plains, a surge of deep moisture will ride northward from the warm Gulf of Mexico.
Meanwhile, winds aloft (low level jet) coming out of the south will be increasing in intensity. This combination is an ideal recipe for severe thunderstorms to develop.
Isolated severe thunderstorms will erupt by late Saturday across the High Plains, in mainly unpopulated areas, from eastern Montana and western North Dakota to west Texas.
Look for large hail and damaging winds in a few locations. The tornado threat will be low at that time.
Severe thunderstorm activity will ramp up significantly Sunday as a strong disturbance rides around the base of the western upper trough and swings eastward into the Plains. With all of the moist, unstable air in place across the Plains, storms will become more widespread and the tornado threat will ramp up.
(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)
Below is our latest forecast thinking on the timing and magnitude of the upcoming severe weather event

Severe Weather Forecast

Sunday

• The greatest chance for severe storms will be across the Dakotas and southward through Oklahoma and west-central Texas. 
• Threats: Large hail and damaging winds. Tornadoes are most possible over parts of South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas and western Oklahoma.
• Cities: Bismarck | Pierre | Grand Island | Dodge City | Oklahoma City 

Sunday's Thunderstorm Outlook

Monday

• Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of Minnesota and western Wisconsin southwestward to Oklahoma and Texas. 
• Threats: Wind-damaging thunderstorms will be scattered over these areas. There also could be some spotty large hail but the tornado threat will be lower than on Sunday.
• Cities: Minneapolis | Omaha | Kansas City | Wichita | Tulsa | Dallas

Monday's Thunderstorm Forecast

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MORE: Plains Severe Weather - May 9, 2016 (Photo Gallery)