Published: May 22,2016
A multi-day severe thunderstorm threat that is taking aim on parts of the Plains, Midwest, and South throughout the week ahead is underway. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary concerns to start the week, but a few tornadoes are also possible each day. Clusters of thunderstorms could also cause some flash flooding.
Severe weather began late Saturday, but it was confined to parts of eastern Montana, western Kansas and western Texas. There was at least one tornado in Wichita County, Kansas, Saturday evening but no damage was reported.
Current Radar with Watches and Warnings
The rounds of thunderstorms throughout this week are being triggered by ripples of energy ejecting eastward from a southward dip in the jet stream across the West. That energy and its associated slow-moving frontal system is intercepting moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, allowing the thunderstorms to form.
Below is our latest forecast thinking on the timing and magnitude of this severe weather event throughout the next several days.
Severe Weather Forecast
Keep in mind that although our forecasts maps the next several days may show that a large area is at risk for severe weather, that not every single location will see damaging thunderstorms. Also, the magnitude of the severe weather threat and tornado potential may vary each day. Check back for updates.Sunday
- The greatest chance for severe storms will be across the Dakotas and southward through western Oklahoma and west-central Texas.
- Threats: Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats. A few tornadoes are also possible throughout this corridor.
- Cities: Bismarck | Pierre | Dodge City | Amarillo
Sunday's Thunderstorm Outlook
- Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of Minnesota and western Wisconsin southward to Oklahoma and Texas.
- Threats: Wind-damaging thunderstorms will be scattered over these areas. There also could be some spotty large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes.
- Cities: Minneapolis | Omaha | Kansas City | Wichita | Okla. City | Dallas
Monday's Thunderstorm Forecast
- Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from southern Minnesota southward through Iowa to parts of Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and northwest Texas.
- Threats: Wind-damaging thunderstorms will be the main threat once again. There also could be some spotty large hail and isolated tornadoes.
- Cities: Des Moines | Topeka | Tulsa | Wichita Falls, Texas
Tuesday's Thunderstorm Forecast
WednesdayTuesday's Thunderstorm Forecast
- The primary corridor for severe thunderstorm potential will exist from eastern Kansas into parts of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana.
- Threats: Damaging wind gusts, large hail and possible isolated tornadoes.
- Cities: Kansas City | St. Louis | Springfield, Illinois
Wednesday's Thunderstorm Forecast
- More rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible in the central states, but details are uncertain.
- This threat could potentially includes parts of Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, Kansas, Arkansas, Nebraska and Iowa.
Setup For Severe Weather
That weather pattern is on display through the week ahead.
A trough of low pressure aloft across the western U.S. will move very slowly eastward this weekend. As disturbances swing around the base of the trough and eject eastward from the Rocky Mountains to the Plains, a surge of deep moisture will ride northward from the warm Gulf of Mexico.
Meanwhile, winds aloft (low level jet) coming out of the south will be increasing in intensity. This combination is an ideal recipe for severe thunderstorms to develop.
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MORE: Plains Severe Weather - May 9, 2016 (Photo Gallery)
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