WEDNESDAY: 04-NOV-15 / 2:00 PM CDT
NEXT FULL WX UPDATE FRIDAYPOSTING SCHEDULE: ‘FULL’ UPDATES ON MONDAYS / FRIDAYS … TEMP FORECAST CHARTS ON WEDNESDAYS AND WHEN WARRANTED
UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS AND MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR TEXAS
Little change to the overall pattern of upper level TROFs moving thru the Western US with above normal heights and ridging in the east. This overall pattern is increasingly likely to last for the next 2 weeks and probably through the rest of the month.
Heavy rain is expected again at the end of the week in TX which will spread north to the Great Lakes and then across the eastern US during the weekend. A potentially major storm system still appears likely in the center of the nation around the middle of next week, with the next major upstream TROF looking to be deep enough to provide significant rain to SOCAL by the end of Week 2 or shortly afterwards. In addition, a tropical cyclone in the EPAC is projected to move into SW Mexico towards the end of Week 2 – with indications it will bring yet another heavy Precip event to TX and the lower Mississippi Valley shortly AFTER the end of Week 2.
Fig 1: Temperature ANOMALY forecast for Week 1 is based STRICTLY on the MOS data forecasts from the todays 12Z operational GFS model run with only minor adjustments towards the raw model data points for Days 6 and 8. Well above normal Temps are expected east of the Rockies during the upcoming week with Temps beginning to fall off a bit over the weekend and early next week. Overall Confidence in the forecast anomaly Pattern and Magnitude is above average for this time of year, with a reading of ‘4’ on a Scale from 1 to 5.
Fig 2: The Week 2 Temperature ANOMALY forecast is based on the 12Z run of the GFS (90%) integrated with the 12Z GFS Ensemble (10%) using the projected pattern along with explicit surface and 850mb (~5,000 FT) Temp forecasts. Some Temps are adjusted for known or expected anomalous thermal patterns & projected storm system passages.The GFS forecasts continue to show above normal Temps thru the Week from the front range eastward, with below normal readings moving into the PAC NW and above normal in SOCAL as a major TROF approaches the coast towards the end of the week. Confidence is near average for this time of year with a reading of ‘3’ for the pattern and magnitude on a scale of 1 to 5.
Fig 3: GFS 15-Day Precipitation Pattern Loop (for mounts greater than 0.10” only) Another major rainfall towards the weekend in TX spreading northward and eastward over the weekend, with a major storm in the central US during the middle of next week. A significant rain event in SOCAL is also becoming a distinct possibility at the very end of the Week as a deep TROF approaches the West coast.
Fig 4: Two (2) Year Sea Surface Height Anomalies from the JASON Satellite System A ‘radar’ type system on a NASA satellite measures ocean surface heights, and the above image shows the departure from normal heights. The 2-year ‘movie’ shows the evolution of El Niño, including the ‘false start’ in 2014, and then the development of our current, extremely strong El Niño. Since warmer water occupies greater volumes than cold water, higher than normal Sea Surface Heights (SSH) correlate with warmer than normal water – and colder waters with lower than normal SSH’s. Keep in mind that actual SST anomalies do not always correlate highly or ‘one-to-one’ with total heat content of the corresponding entire column of water represented by SSH.
Posting Schedule: ‘FULL’ UPDATES ON MONDAYS & FRIDAYS … TEMP FORECAST CHARTS ON WEDNESDAYS AND WHEN WARRANTED
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Steve
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