Tropical Systems May Develop as End of Atlantic Hurricane Season Nears

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist

November 7,2015; 8:50PM,EST

 

 

The Atlantic Basin is attempting to have one last gasp for the 2015 hurricane season with two tropical systems being closely monitored for potential development.
One system is currently tracking through the western Gulf of Mexico. The other system will drift through waters between Puerto Rico, the Bahamas and Bermuda during the second week of November.

"The system moving northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico will have a short window to develop this weekend before encountering a cold front pushing off the Texas coast," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.
"For now, the system is in a rather favorable environment for development," AccuWeather Meteorologist Dave Samuhel said, "but that will change quickly Saturday night into Sunday when strong northerly wind shear develops over the system. Plus, a strong cold front moving south of Texas will merge with the feature, helping prevent development."
Regardless of development, moisture from this system will continue to fuel downpours from the Gulf Coast of the United States to the Carolinas into early in the new week. Seas in the western Gulf will build a bit but are unlikely to have significant impact on petroleum platforms in the region.
As the potential for development with the first system lessens, the opposite will occur with the second.
RELATED:
AccuWeather Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Megh to Follow in Footsteps of Chapala
Interactive San Juan, Puerto Rico, Radar
"The second system will spread moderate to heavy rainfall from the Leeward Islands to Puerto Rico and part of Hispaniola this weekend," Kottlowski said.
Many areas bordering the northern Caribbean Sea have received lower-than-average rainfall since the spring and could stand a thorough soaking in lieu of flooding.
Rainfall in San Juan, Puerto Rico, and St. Croix, United States Virgin Islands, has been about 50 percent of average since Feb. 1, 2015.
"The second system will have more time to organize north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola next week," Kottlowski said. "Waters are marginally warm and disruptive winds will weaken in that area."
As a result, the southwestern Atlantic, as opposed to the western Gulf has a slightly greater chance at spawning a tropical depression or storm.
This loop shows the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic Ocean. (Satellite/NOAA)
The system and its downpours are expected to be near the Turks and Caicos Islands on Sunday before tracking through or near the Bahamas early in the new week. The system may pass near Bermuda around Wednesday, Nov. 11.
Residents and visitors in the above areas should closely monitor the path and strength of the system.
"Latest indications point toward the system developing near the Bahamas early next week," stated AccuWeather Meteorologist Ben Noll.
Rain, wind and seas will increase around the system if it strengthens. Building seas and surf would become a concern for bathers, boaters and cruise interests.
Depending on the system's strength, swells could also reach the southern Atlantic coast of the U.S. early next week. Noll, however, does not expect the system itself to reach the U.S.
"Another system along the Southeast coast early next week should steer the tropical system back out to the Atlantic and toward Bermuda," he said.
The Atlantic hurricane season does not officially end until Nov. 30. Strengthening westerly winds and cooling waters bring the demise of tropical systems as the month progresses.
Following the two marginal threats into next week, the basin may be finished churning up tropical storms and hurricanes, aside from perhaps a poorly organized drenching system in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.
Prior to this weekend, there have been 10 tropical storms and three hurricanes, two of which became major hurricanes during the 2015 season. All numbers were below the average of 12 tropical storms, six hurricane and three major hurricanes.
Joaquin, which blasted the Bahamas and sent tropical moisture into the Southeastern states, stopped just short of being a Category 5 hurricane. Tropical storms Ana and Bill were the only two systems to make landfall in the U.S.
Content contributed by AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski.