Tropical Storm Kate to Stir Surf From Bahamas to Southeast US, Bermuda

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

November 9,2015; 10:29PM,EST

 

 

Tropical Storm Kate will stir seas and bring downpours in the area from the Bahamas to Bermuda into Wednesday.
Tropical Depression 12 became Tropical Storm Kate Monday morning near the Bahamas.
Rain squalls and gusty winds accompanying Kate will graze the eastern islands of the Bahamas into Monday night.
Seas will also build and become a concern for bathers, boaters and cruise interests from the Bahamas to Bermuda to along the southern Atlantic Seaboard of the United States.

According to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, "Kate is experiencing southwesterly shear and this is displacing the more intense showers and thunderstorms to the east of the depression's center, away from the Bahamas."

Wind shear is the change in speed and direction of air flow at different layers of the atmosphere. Wind shear can disrupt the flow of air around a developing or organized tropical system.
Rain and gusty winds will taper off across the northeast Bahamas Monday night as Kate moves away.
This loop shows the tropical depression near the Bahamas. (Satellite/NOAA)
"Kate will continue to move away from the northern Bahamas during Tuesday morning and should remain over warm water to the southwest and west of Bermuda Tuesday into Tuesday night," Kottlowski said.
Kate will begin curving away from the U.S. during Tuesday. However, seas will build from the Carolinas to northeastern Florida with strong and frequent rip currents.
"At closest approach, Kate is likely to pass about 200 miles north of Bermuda on Wednesday," Kottlowski said.
During Wednesday, Kate will bring rain squalls, gusty winds and rough seas in the vicinity of Bermuda.
Kate will gain strength into early Wednesday and could become a hurricane prior to entering colder waters north of Bermuda. Rain, wind and seas will increase around the system.

As Kate turns toward the northeast, wind shear will increase during the middle of the week. During the same time Kate will begin to be absorbed by a non-tropical storm system moving over the eastern U.S. Both conditions will end any chances for further strengthening.
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An area of disturbed weather moved northward from the Caribbean late last week and organized into a tropical depression on Sunday.
Tropical Depression 12/Kate became the first tropical system in the Atlantic since Joaquin pounded the Bahamas about a month ago.
Kate could prove to be the last gasp for the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially ends on Nov. 30.
"Besides Kate, we see no support for other tropical development across the Atlantic Basin through the middle of November," Kottlowski added.
"Strengthening westerly winds and cooling waters bring the demise of tropical systems as the month progresses," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.
"Following this threat, the basin may be finished churning up tropical storms and hurricanes, aside from perhaps a poorly organized drenching system in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico."
Including this tropical system, there have been 11 tropical storms and three hurricanes, two of which became major hurricanes during the 2015 season. All numbers were below the average of 12 tropical storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Joaquin, which blasted the Bahamas and sent tropical moisture into the Southeastern states, stopped just short of being a Category 5 hurricane. Tropical storms Ana and Bill were the only two systems to make landfall in the U.S.