Tropical Cyclone Megh to Follow in Footsteps of Chapala

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

November 6,2015; 10:24PM,EST

 

 

Tropical Cyclone Megh will continue to closely follow in the footsteps of Tropical Cyclone Chapala into early next week but only in terms of its track, not its intensity.
Much like Chapala, Megh will continue to track from the Arabian Sea to the Gulf of Aden into early next week. Megh is taking a track slightly farther south than Chapala but still threatens to impact many of the same communities that endured the recent powerful cyclone's wrath.
Megh, however, will fail to rival Chapala in terms of intensity, keeping the impacts on a much less devastating level.

"At peak intensity, Tropical Cyclone Chapala (04A) was the equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific Ocean on [Oct. 30], making it one of the strongest cyclones on record in the Arabian Sea," stated AccuWeather Meteorologist Eric Leister.
The strength of Megh is expected to remain equivalent to a tropical storm in the Atlantic or Pacific oceans as it continues to track across the Arabian Sea to the Gulf of Aden.
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The cyclone is expected to produce 50 to as much as 100 mm (2 to as much as 4 inches) of rain and wind gusts of around 95 kph (60 mph) across Socotra, threatening to cause more flooding and damage in communities beginning to clean up following Chapala.
Beyond Socotra, the impacts of Megh will dramatically lessen for early next week as it tracks into the Gulf of Aden and encounters dry air from the Arabian Peninsula.

Since Megh will not be as strong as Chapala was when it began to interact with the dry air, Megh will weaken faster in the Gulf of Aden.
Regardless, AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Douty still expects scattered showers and thunderstorms to accompany Megh as it grazes the northeastern tip of Somalia or curves into south-central mainland Yemen, site of where Chapala plowed onshore.

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"There will be an isolated flooding threat, especially considering the mountainous desert terrain of the region," said Douty.
Between Yemen and the northeastern tip of Somalia, the potential for localized downpours to trigger flooding will be greatest over the latter region. In addition, sporadic damaging winds cannot be ruled out as Megh makes its closest approach to Somalia.