Tropical Cyclone Megh to Follow in Footsteps of Chapala

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

November 5,2015; 10:50PM,EST

 

 

Tropical Cyclone Megh in the Arabian Sea will follow closely in the footsteps of Tropical Cyclone Chapala in terms of its track but not its intensity into early next week.
Megh was named by the India Meteorological Department early Thursday night, local time, in the eastern Arabian Sea. The cyclone will remain on a general west-southwest path into this weekend, tracking slightly farther south but in a similar fashion to Chapala.
With the water churned up in the wake of Chapala, Megh will fail to reach or rival Chapala in terms of intensity.

"At peak intensity, Tropical Cyclone Chapala (04A) was the equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific Ocean on [Oct. 30], making it one of the strongest cyclones on record in the Arabian Sea," stated AccuWeather Meteorologist Eric Leister.
The strength of Megh is still expected to reach that of a strong tropical storm, potentially even flirting with Category 1 hurricane status before reaching the island of Socotra later this weekend.
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Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Center
Yemen Weather Center
The cyclone is expected to produce 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) of rain and wind gusts of 95-130 kph (60-80 mph) across Socotra, threatening to cause more flooding and damage in communities beginning to clean up following Chapala.
Beyond Socotra, the impacts of Megh will dramatically lessen for early next week as it tracks into the Gulf of Aden and encounters dry air from the Arabian Peninsula.
Since Megh will not be as strong as Chapala was when it began to interact with the dry air, Megh will weaken faster in the Gulf of Aden.

3-D Satellite of Hurricane Patricia

Regardless, AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Douty still expects scattered showers and thunderstorms to accompany Megh as it grazes the northeastern tip of Somalia or curves into south-central mainland Yemen, site of where Chapala plowed onshore.
"There will be an isolated flooding threat, especially considering the mountainous desert terrain of the region," said Douty.