Severe Weather Threat on Friday from Mississippi Valley to Great Lakes

November 5,2015

A threat for severe thunderstorms continues as a potent storm system punches toward the Mississippi Valley after leaving heavy snowfall over the mountains of the West. Wind and hail damage have been reported in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas, and the threat for dangerous storms will continue into Friday.
(MORE: Damage Reported as Storms Strike Plains | First Widespread Snow in the Western States)
A line of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado will continue through early Friday across northeastern Texas, central to southeastern Arkansas and western Tennessee.
There's also a threat of local flash flooding in parts of Texas, still recovering from last week's destructive flash flooding.
(MORE: Dr. Forbes' Latest TOR:CON Tornado Threat Forecast)

Severe Weather Forecast

Short-Term Thunderstorm Forecast

Winds topping 100 mph are roaring from the southwest some 20,000 feet above ground level over a zone from the Texas to Wisconsin. Winds of 60 mph are blowing just a few thousand feet above ground level in parts of that corridor. Similar conditions will shift into the Great Lakes region Friday.
As thunderstorms erupt, they could pull some of that wind momentum down to ground level, bringing potentially damaging winds.
The most unstable air remains over east Texas, well to the south of the strongest wind energy aloft. Still, that instability could have enough of a favorable environment to support isolated severe thunderstorms and flash flooding across parts of Texas through early Friday morning.
Here's the severe weather forecast through the weekend.

Friday

• Strong to severe thunderstorms may cause locally damaging winds and spotty hail early in the day from eastern Texas into northwestern Louisiana, central to southeastern Arkansas and western Tennessee.
• Severe thunderstorms are possible later in the day from the eastern Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi Valley.
• Though the areal coverage of severe storms is likely to be less than Thursday, high wind gusts are possible especially in the northern part of the severe risk area, while an isolated tornado can't be ruled out in the southern part of the risk area.
• Given the limited instability, northern parts of the risk area may experience little or no lightning and thunder but still see damaging wind gusts.
• As the frontal system stalls out, clusters of thunderstorms with locally heavy rain may trigger flash flooding into Friday night from the Tennessee Valley southwestward into the Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of Texas. 

This Weekend

• The risk of severe thunderstorms decreases this weekend as there will be limited instability.
• A few isolated severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out on Saturday from the Carolinas to southern Texas. 
• Thunderstorms are likely in Florida on Sunday, as the cold front continues to push southward, but severe thunderstorms are not expected.

For specific tornado threat forecasts, check out the latest TOR:CON forecasts from severe weather expert, Dr. Greg Forbes.
(MAPS: 7-day National Rain Forecast)

Radar, Watches and Warnings

The current radar maps below focus on the most likely areas for severe weather and/or flash flooding, if any. Maps update every five minutes; refresh this page for the latest image.

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)

Severe Weather Reports

Severe Weather and Flood Reports

The first report of severe weather from the mid-week storm system came late Wednesday evening, when thunderstorm winds downed a large tree onto a street in Liberal, Kansas.
As of 8:10 p.m. CST Thursday, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center had tallied 18 reports of large hail, 16 reports of damaging winds and one tornado since 6 a.m. CST.
(MORE: Impacts, Reports from Thursday's Severe Storms)

PHOTOS: Tornadoes, Flooding in the South (Late Oct. 2015)