Limited Severe Weather Threat Over Gulf Coast States; Flash Flooding Possible

November 6,2015

A threat of thunderstorms and flash flooding continues, from the same storm system that slammed the Plains over the past few days. Damaging winds, large hail and even a few tornadoes were reported over portions of Texas, Oklahoma and surrounding states, although the system is losing some of its punch as it progresses east.
(MORE: Damage Reported as Storms Strike Plains | First Widespread Snow in the Western States)
The chance of a few strong thunderstorms with damaging winds and locally heavy rain will continue into Saturday morning from parts of Texas to the Gulf Coast states.
(MORE: Dr. Forbes' Latest TOR:CON Tornado Threat Forecast)

Severe Weather Forecast

Short-Term Thunderstorm Forecast

Rain and thunderstorms will focus along a cold front stretching from the southern Appalachians to the Lower Mississippi Valley. This cold front will nudge southeastward through the Southeast this weekend.
Winds topping 100 mph are roaring from the southwest some 20,000 feet above ground level over a zone from the Tennessee Valley into the Northeast. Winds of 60 mph are blowing just a few thousand feet above ground level in parts of that corridor.
Despite the strong winds aloft, little to no instability in the atmosphere will largely mitigate the threat for any severe thunderstorms, although gusty thunderstorms with heavy rain will remain possible across parts of the South.
Here's the severe weather and flash flooding forecast through the weekend.

Saturday

• A few strong thunderstorms remain possible through midday from central and southeastern Texas into Louisiana and southern Mississippi.
• Flash flooding will be the main threat with these storms, especially over parts of Texas, where heavy rain has already fallen over the past few weeks.
• Another early-day area of locally heavy rain is forecast from central Alabama into the northern half of Georgia and parts of the Carolinas.
• During the second half of the day, non-severe thunderstorms with locally heavy rain are expected along the Gulf Coast, with a few thunderstorms possible over Georgia and the Carolinas.

Sunday

• With the cold front dipping into the Gulf of Mexico, appreciable instability and thunderstorm activity will be confined to the Florida peninsula.
• Across much of Florida, showers and embedded thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rain and a few strong wind gusts.

For specific tornado threat forecasts, check out the latest TOR:CON forecasts from severe weather expert, Dr. Greg Forbes.
(MAPS: 7-day National Rain Forecast)

Radar, Watches and Warnings

The current radar maps below focus on the most likely areas for severe weather and/or flash flooding, if any. Maps update every five minutes; refresh this page for the latest image.

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)

Severe Weather Reports

Reports of severe weather and flooding from Thursday, Nov. 5, 2015.

As of 12 p.m. CST Friday, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center had tallied 13 reports of large hail, 28 reports of damaging winds and two tornadoes since 6 a.m. CST Thursday.
This includes an EF-0 tornado confirmed by a National Weather Service storm survey team on the north side of Ft. Worth, Texas, Thursday afternoon.
(MORE: Impacts, Reports from Thursday's Severe Storms)
Even in the absence of severe thunderstorms, high winds have been damaging in a few spots.
Friday morning, winds gusting up to 73 mph damaged multiple buildings, uprooted large trees, and downed at least one billboard in Bad Axe, Michigan. Signs, billboards, trees and powerlines were also downed in much of eastern Lapeer County, Michigan.
Yet again, heavy rain triggered flooding around water-weary Coriscana, Texas, around midnight Friday morning, prompting a water rescue along a stretch of Interstate 45.

PHOTOS: Tornadoes, Flooding in the South (Late Oct. 2015)