Flash Flood Threat in the Carolinas Through Early Tuesday

Jon Erdman
Published: November 9,2015

Additional heavy rain and flash flooding will target parts of the Southeast through early Tuesday, including rain-weary parts of the Carolinas.
Friday night into Saturday, Texas and Louisiana were affected by this latest lashing of heavy rain. A stationary band of heavy rain produced rainfall rates over 3 inches per hour near Beaumont, Texas, leading to street flooding in the city of Central Gardens.

Current Radar, Watches and Warnings

Flood Watches and Warnings

Rainfall Forecast Through Tuesday

Sunday, the heaviest rain fell in northern Florida. Apalachicola picked up 7.31 inches of rain for the day, including 4.92 inches in just 90 minutes. In Jacksonville Beach, there were reports of flooding in homes Sunday night and over 10 inches of rain was measured in the area through 7 p.m.
Over the past few weeks, torrential rain has triggered destructive flash flooding in parts of Texas and Louisiana, in particular. Parts of South Carolina were also swamped by a double-whammy of historically heavy rain and coastal flooding in early October.
(MORE: One of South's Wettest Years, So Far)
While likely not nearly as prolific as any of those past events, a number of factors are combining for another flood threat in this region.
(INTERACTIVE: Latest NWS Flood Alerts)
First, a cold front that was sagging slowly into the South has stalled out over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and near the Southeast coast.
A strong subtropical jet stream will continue to ride along that frontal boundary, inducing weak waves of surface low pressure along the front from the northern Gulf Coast to just off the coast of the Carolinas into early Tuesday. This system will then track northeast into midweek.
A deep fetch of moisture from the Bay of Campeche, western Caribbean Sea, and far eastern Pacific Ocean has been feeding into the Gulf Coast and Southeast coast. A second plume of moisture from Tropical Depression Twelve may also have some contribution to the Carolinas rain, but nothing like what we saw in early October.
(INTERACTIVE: National Radar Map)
Here are the forecast details.

Forecast Timing, Amounts

Into Monday Night

• Rain lingers in northern Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina and North Carolina, possibly persisting into early Tuesday.
• The rain will also spread northward into Virginia, Kentucky, West Virginia, western Indiana, as well aa Ohio, Maryland and Pennsylvania.
• Heaviest rain, local flash flooding: eastern North Carolina.
• The National Weather Service has issued flash flood watches for parts of eastern North Carolina.
• Rainfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour area possible in some of these clusters of rain, that may stall out for a period of 1-3 hours, or more, at times.

We expect the heavy rain threat to clear the Carolinas on Tuesday.
(CITIES: Destin | Jacksonville | Charleston | Columbia)
As always, respect the power of flash flooding.
Your vehicle can be the biggest danger in a flash flood. Never drive through flood waters of unknown depth and never drive around barricades blocking flooded roads. Turn around, don't drown.

PHOTOS: Tornadoes, Flooding in the South (Late Oct. 2015)