Classic November Storm to Bring Tornado Threat, Strong Wind Gusts to Central U.S.

November 10,2015

A potential severe weather outbreak, including a threat of tornadoes, looms for the nation's midsection later Wednesday as a powerful low pressure system develops over the Plains and moves toward the Great Lakes. In addition to the severe thunderstorm risk, the area of low pressure will generate a large area of strong winds not associated with thunderstorms in the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes through late this week.
Let's start with the forecast for this potential severe weather outbreak, and then look at where strong non-thunderstorm winds are expected the next few days.

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Wednesday

A powerful southward dip in the jet stream will punch east into the Plains and Midwest Wednesday.

Wednesday's Thunderstorm Forecast

Ahead of this jet stream dip, warmer, more humid air in the lower levels of the atmosphere will flow northward into the Plains from the western Gulf of Mexico as strong low pressure forms to the east of  the Rocky Mountains.

Storm Timing: 1 p.m. CST Wednesday

Storm Timing: 4 p.m. CST Wednesday

Storm Timing: 7 p.m. CST Wednesday

The resultant wind shear and instability from the strong jet stream and colder air aloft overlapping the increasing moisture near the surface of the earth should give rise to severe thunderstorms.
As with virtually all severe weather forecasts, there are uncertainties. In this case, it pertains to the magnitude of the tornado threat and how far east the severe weather will spread.
(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)
Severe weather threats in fall typically have plenty of wind energy from the jet stream, but limited amounts of unstable air. The setup this week is no different.
In these cases, the main threat from severe thunderstorms tends to be widespread damaging wind gusts with embedded tornadoes. The magnitude of the tornado threat is dependent on how unstable the air mass becomes, which remains uncertain at this time. Also, the amount of unstable air will dictate how far east the severe weather will spread into parts of the Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley.
(MORE: Where November Tornadoes Are Most Common)
Here is our latest forecast thinking.

• Through Wednesday AM: A few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop in the morning near a warm front from southeastern Nebraska into southern Iowa, lifting north through the day. As the warm front advances north, the air mass across the Lower Missouri Valley and Middle Mississippi Valley will become increasingly unstable.
• Wednesday afternoon/evening: Corridors of severe thunderstorms are most likely to develop across eastern Nebraska to far northeastern Kansas, much of Iowa and northern Missouri. This is also where the tornado threat will be most significant. Further south across central to southern Missouri, far eastern Oklahoma, northeastern Texas and Arkansas, strong to severe thunderstorms are also forecast with an isolated tornado threat as well.
• Wednesday night: As the thunderstorms race toward the east and northeast, the threat for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will shift into Illinois, far southern Minnesota and southern Wisconsin. Damaging winds remain possible as far east as Indiana, central Kentucky, western Tennessee and northwestern Mississippi. The severe threat will gradually diminish overnight as the atmosphere becomes less unstable.
• Thursday: Probably no severe thunderstorms as the weather system heads east into stable air.

For specific tornado threat forecasts, check out the latest TOR:CON forecasts from severe weather expert, Dr. Greg Forbes.
Severe weather and tornado outbreaks are not unusual in November. In fact, November is a climatological "second season" of severe weather, not simply in the Deep South but, occasionally, in parts of the Midwest.
Almost two years ago, an outbreak of 72 tornadoes raked through parts of seven states, including a pair of EF4 tornadoes in Washington, Illinois, and near New Minden, Illinois.

High Winds Will Blast Through the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes Midweek

High Wind Alerts

The strong low pressure system associated with the severe weather outbreak will also bring high



















winds to a large area of the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes this week.
Computer model forecasts show that the low may have a barometric pressure reading in the low 980 millibar range Thursday morning. This means the low will be very intense, and capable of producing strong winds.
High wind watches and warnings have already been issued by the National Weather Service from the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles to portions of Iowa and southwest Minnesota beginning Tuesday night and continuing into Wednesday for gusts up to 60 mph.
(FORECAST: Dodge City, Kansas | Omaha, Nebraska | Chicago | Detroit)
On Wednesday, strong northwest winds will impacts much of the Plains, from parts of the Dakotas to Texas. Those winds could combine with snow in the High Plains of Colorado, Wyoming, northwest Kansas and western Nebraska to result in low visibility and dangerous driving conditions.
(MORE: Rockies, High Plains Snow)
Thursday, strong winds gusting to 45 mph will blast through areas from the northern Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes, potentially resulting in air travel delays and downing some tree limbs. This includes cities from Fargo, North Dakota, to Minneapolis, Chicago and Detroit.
The winds will also be a hazard to marine interests in the Great Lakes.

PHOTOS: Tornadoes, Flooding in the South (Late Oct. 2015)