Chapala Threatens Yemen With Flooding, Damaging Wind

By Eric Leister, Meteorologist

November 1,2015; 8:41PM,EST

 

 

Yemen is bracing for impacts from a small, but currently powerful Tropical Cyclone Chapala (04A) in the Arabian Sea.
Tropical Cyclone Chapala (04A) became the equivalent to that of a Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific Ocean on Friday, local time but has since weakened to the strength of a Category 3.
Image of Tropical Cyclone Chapala taken on Sun. Nov. 1, 2015. (NOAA/Satellite)
"Chapala became the second strongest cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls said. "The pressure of Chapala is 922 mb, close to the lowest pressure of Gonu, 920 mb, in 2007."
Nicholls added that the last cyclone to strike Yemen was Keila in 2011, and was only equivalent to a weak tropical storm.
Chapala is forecast to weaken, prior to making landfall Tuesday morning, local time, but will still be stronger than Keila.

The main threat area from Chapala will be in central and southeastern Yemen. Bands of heavy rain will begin to affect the coast on Monday as the cyclone near the coast.
The latest forecast take Chapala inland on Tuesday near Al Mukalla. Damaging wind and flooding rainfall are likely near the point of landfall. Rainfall is expected to be 5-10 inches (125-250 mm), which is more than the region receives in a given year.
RELATED:
Oman Weather Center
Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Center
Yemen Weather Center
Seas will build substantially in advance of Chapala along the coast of Somalia and Yemen. Offshore waves within 160 km (100 miles) of the center will range between 4 and 8 meters (15 and 25 feet).
While Chapala remains a very powerful cyclone now, significant weaken as it approaches the Yemen coastline.
According to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski, exactly how quickly the system will weaken is uncertain at this time.
"A strike on the Arabian coast by a major tropical cyclone is rare due to great amount of dry air that is drawn in from the Arabian Peninsula well ahead of the storm," Sosnowski said.
Chapala could still be a dangerous cyclone equivalent of a Category 1 hurricane as it makes landfall in Yemen.

Central and eastern Yemen should be on highest alert for this storm that is expected to bring flooding and damaging winds.
Areas within 50 km (30 miles) of landfall will see the worst conditions with damaging winds, coastal flooding and torrential downpours.
Locations in Yemen that may be impacted by the damaging hurricane-force winds of Chapala include Balhaf, Al Mukalla and Ash Shihr.
AccuWeather meteorologists will continue to monitor the Indian Basin, following this pattern change, in the coming weeks.
AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Douty contributed content to this story.