Tropical Depression Bill's Flood Threat Spreads From the Ozarks to Ohio Valley (FORECAST)

June 18,2015

Highlights

• As of 10 p.m. CDT, the center of Tropical Depression Bill was about 20 miles east of Fayetteville, Arkansas. The circulation is moving east-northeast at 10 mph, according to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center.
• Additional moderate-to-heavy rain will spread east from far eastern Oklahoma and extreme southeast Kansas to Arkansas, southern Missouri, southern Illinois, southern Indiana and Kentucky into Saturday. This may lead to flash flooding and renewed or aggravated river flooding.
• A few severe storms may also occur in bands of thunderstorms, mainly well east of the center.
• Peak rainfall totals through 4 p.m. CDT Thursday include 12.53 inches near Healdton, Oklahoma, 12.50 inches in Montague, Texas, and 11.77 inches near Ganado, Texas.
• The Washita River at Dickson, Oklahoma, had risen to a new record level of 47.47 feet as of Thursday evening. Record flooding was also reported on West Mustang Creek near Ganado, Texas, and on the Lavaca
  River near Edna, Texas.
• Tropical Storm Bill made landfall along the Texas coast on Matagorda Island at 11:45 a.m. CDT Tuesday with top sustained winds of 60 mph. Matagorda Island is located between Houston and Corpus Christi.

Flood Alerts

Rainfall Forecast

Rainfall Totals So Far

As Bill continues to move east, more locally heavy rain is expected to result in flash flooding and renewed or aggravated river flooding.
Flood watches are posted along Bill's future path from the Ozarks to mid-Mississippi Valley and lower-Ohio Valley.
(MORE: Latest News on Bill)
Locally heavy rain can be expected both near the core of the system – mainly to the north and northeast of Bill's center – and in narrower rain bands well to the south and southeast of the circulation center.
(MORE: 6 Incredible U.S. Rainfall Records)
Into Saturday, Bill's moisture will get drawn east into the mid-Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley, leading to a threat of locally heavy rain and flooding.
This includes parts of Arkansas, southern Missouri, southern Illinois, Kentucky, southern Indiana and southern Ohio. Rainfall totals in this swath are generally expected to be 2 to 5 inches.
In addition to the rainfall threat, a few severe thunderstorms may develop on Thursday in parts of the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
Model trends suggest that the remnants of Bill may survive all the way to the East Coast by Sunday, bringing the potential for locally heavy rainfall in a few spots across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Tropical Storm Bill's Landfall

Tropical Storm Bill made landfall on Matagorda Island, Texas, at 11:45 a.m. CDT Tuesday. Bill was then downgraded to a tropical depression at 1 a.m. CDT Wednesday.
The peak storm surge from Bill occurred Tuesday morning and early Tuesday afternoon, coinciding with an early morning high tide along the Upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts.
(MORE: Expert Analysis)
At least a foot of water covered areas along FM 2031 south of Matagorda. Highway 87 was closed early Tuesday morning from Gilchrist to highway 124 on the east edge of the Bolivar Peninsula due to debris on the road. Galveston County emergency management reported yards were flooded in parts of Hitchcock and Bayou Vista, across the bay from Galveston Island. The water level at Port Lavaca, Texas, was more than three feet above normal early Tuesday afternoon.
Tropical storm-force winds were reported near the Texas coast on Tuesday morning. Port O'Connor, Texas, clocked sustained winds of 44 mph and a gust to 54 mph.
Stronger winds were reported on oil rigs off the Texas coast Tuesday morning. One elevated rig just east of Port O'Connor measured a 66 mph gust at 9:10 a.m. CDT Tuesday.

Another burst of high winds developed several hours after landfall in an area just east and southeast of Bill's center. This included a gust to 58 mph in Palacios, Texas, at 6:20 p.m. CDT.
Bill became the second landfall in the U.S. in the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season.
According to a preliminary check of mainland U.S. tropical storm and hurricane landfall data from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, senior meteorologist Stu Ostro found the last time the U.S. had a pair of tropical storm or stronger landfalls this early in the season was 1871.
Bill also became the fourth mainland U.S. landfall of at least tropical storm intensity since the start of the 2013 hurricane season. This is yet more proof that landfalls can and do occur even in somewhat "quieter" hurricane seasons.

Check back with us at weather.com and The Weather Channel for updates on this system.
Senior meteorologist Nick Wiltgen and meteorologists Jonathan Erdman and Chris Dolce contributed to this report.

PHOTOS: Tropical Storm Bill