Severe Weather Outbreak Underway in Midwest, South and East

Jonathan Belles
Published: February 28,2017
A severe weather outbreak is well underway in the Midwest and South before sweeping into the East Wednesday, with a threat of tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail.
(MORE: March's Typical Tornado Risk)
The storms are developing in response to a strong jet stream surging into the eastern half of the country, blasting atop a warm and increasingly-humid air mass. A sharpening cold front will eventually sweep to the East Coast, as well.
Moderate to strong wind shear, the change of wind speed and direction with height, will allow storms to grow and persist. This will also increase the risk of tornadoes, some of which have already occurred in the dark.
(MORE: Nighttime Tornadoes are Particularly Deadly)

Happening Now

Multiple squall lines of thunderstorms, with some embedded supercells, are pushing eastward across the Midwest and Ohio Valley. The biggest tornado threat is from southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and southern Indiana.
(MORE: Tornado Central)

Current Radar, Watches and Warnings

Late Tuesday afternoon, a tornado was reported near Ottawa, Illinois, which lead to at least one fatality. Baseball-sized hail was also reported with this storm by spotters. Hail up to tennis-ball sized was reported earlier Tuesday afternoon near Galva, Illinois, southeast of Davenport, Iowa.
A tornado was also spotted near Perryville, Missouri, Tuesday evening, and the emergency manager reported overturned vehicles on Interstate 55, significant damage to homes and other structures, and at least two fatalities. This tornado then tracked into southern Illinois, where homes were destroyed north of Elkville, and U.S. 51 was impassable north of town. The tornado may have then gone on to impact Mulkeytown, Illinois, where homes were destroyed and numerous trees and powerlines were snapped.
(NEWS: At Least 3 Dead as Severe Weather Outbreak Impacts Midwest)
Another tornado was observed by weather spotters Tuesday evening over Bald Knob, Arkansas, and damage was reported in nearby Kensett. This prompted a shelter-in-place at a basketball tournament in the area.
There were a few severe thunderstorm warnings Tuesday morning in parts of the Midwest. Golfball-size hail – 1.75-inch diameter – was reported in Perty County, Missouri, between St. Louis and Cape Girardeau, just after 2:30 a.m. CST.  Hail to the size of quarters was reported in southern Wisconsin late in the morning.

Forecast Timing

Wednesday

• One or more squall lines of severe thunderstorms ahead of the cold front will move from the Ohio Valley into the mid-Atlantic states, trailing south into the Tennessee Valley and Deep South.
• Damaging winds will be the primary threat, though a few tornadoes can't be ruled out.
• Cities: Jackson, Mississippi | Birmingham | Nashville | Atlanta | Pittsburgh | Washington D.C.

Wednesday's Thunderstorm Forecast

Wednesday Night

• A broken line of scattered severe storms may persist from as far north as the New York City Tri-State into the Southeast (Carolinas, Georgia, southern Alabama).
• Damaging winds will be the primary threat, though a few tornadoes can't be ruled out.
• Cities: New York | Raleigh | Columbia

Wednesday Night's Thunderstorm Forecast

Very-Welcome Rainfall

Along with the storms, locally heavy rainfall amounts will be seen across parts of the South and Ohio Valley.
A swath of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys is expected to pick up 1 to 2 inches of rainfall. Localized amounts up to 3 inches are possible.

Forecast Rainfall

Much of the South remains in a severe drought that dates back to summer.
With just a few exceptions, the Southeast has seen below-average rainfall since the beginning of February. Parts of Mississippi have seen less than 25 percent of their average February rainfall.
(MORE: 6 Unusual Things February Brought)
Numerous sites across the South and mid-Atlantic states are experiencing one of their top-10-driest Februaries.

Current Drought Monitor

MORE: Severe Storms – January 2017

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.