March 2017 Temperature Outlook: Widespread Warmth Expected

Linda Lam
Published: February 26,2017
The trend of warmer-than-average temperatures in the South and colder temperatures in the Pacific Northwest that we have seen over the last few months is expected to persist through March, according to the most recent outlook by The Weather Company, an IBM Business.
(MORE: East of the Rockies, Signs of Spring Already Popping Up)
A large swath of the U.S., stretching from Arizona into the Great Lakes and most of New England will likely experience above-average temperatures in March. Areas from Texas into South Carolina and as far north as southern Missouri and western Kentucky will likely see temperatures well-above average.
The outlook highlights only a small area of far northwestern Washington where cooler-than-average temperatures are anticipated.
(MAPS: 10-Day Forecast)
Otherwise, most of the West into northern Minnesota, as well as much of Maine, may see temperatures near average.

March 2017 temperature outlook. Areas not shaded have an equal chance of above- or below-average temperatures.
(The Weather Company, an IBM Business)

This pattern of colder-than-average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest and increasingly warm conditions farther East as the winter progresses is characteristic of La Niña. Even though La Niña has ended, the atmospheric response to it has not yet faded away and will likely influence temperatures in the U.S. through March.
There are signs that colder conditions may evolve in early March, but warmer temperatures will take hold once again later in the month.
(MORE: When Spring's Last Snow Typically Happens (INTERACTIVE)
"The pattern that has been prevalent the last couple of moths will likely continue into March, with some cooler risks early in the month followed by strong Pacific flow undercutting North Pacific ridging and resulting in a very warm last half of the month," said Dr. Todd Crawford, senior meteorologist with The Weather Company.
Once again the Alaskan upper-level ridge of high pressure is predicted to move into northeastern Asia in mid-March. This will likely result in mild air surging back into the U.S. for the later half of the month. This is a very similar pattern to what occurred in late February, resulting in record-breaking spring like temperatures across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S.
(MAPS: Average High and Low Temperatures)

Average March Highs

Considering what average high temperatures are in March, a period of warmer-than-average temperatures could result in some very warm conditions, especially during late March when temperatures really begin to warm up.
(MORE: As Spring Approaches, Here's When Temperatures Typically Warm Up)
This generally mild pattern will likely persist through spring, especially in the southern Plains into the Deep South, with the best chance for cooler-than-average conditions remaining in the Pacific Northwest.
MORE: Winter Storm Quid, February 2017 (PHOTOS)

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.