By Eric Leister, AccuWeather meteorologist
February 22,2017, 12:13:46PM,EST
The coldest winter air in several years will maintain its grip on northern and eastern Europe to start the spring season.
People will want to keep their jackets handy well into April in London, United Kingdom; Amsterdam, Netherlands; Berlin, Germany; Warsaw, Poland; and Minsk, Belarus.
Anyone looking to escape the chill will want to head to the Mediterranean where the warmth will make its earliest appearance.
Warmth delayed from the UK into northern Europe
An intrusion of polar air during the month of March will make it feel like an extended winter from the United Kingdom into northern France, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany and Denmark.
Extended periods of below-normal temperatures will last through March before a shift toward more seasonable temperatures begins.
"Warm pulses across southern Europe will be held at bay keeping temperatures near to below normal from the British Isles to Germany during March," AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys said.
The winterlike chill will also bring the potential for some wintry showers to the hills of Scotland, England and Wales.
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"The potential exists for several accumulating snowfalls in Scotland, especially in the higher elevations," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert said.
The shift to more typical springlike warmth will occur as wet weather increases with more frequent storms arriving from the Atlantic Ocean during the month of April.
Overall, temperatures will be near to above normal during the late spring across the U.K. and Ireland with seasonable temperatures expected throughout northern Europe.
Dry weather will dominate much of the early spring in these same areas.
As storms increase in frequency from the Atlantic, however, there will be a higher risk for a damaging windstorm in early April across Ireland and the U.K.
Spring warmth to surge across Iberian Peninsula and Italy
The most widespread warmth during the spring will be found across the Iberian Peninsula, southern France and Italy.
Surges of warmth from Africa will result in above-normal warmth for much of the season along with prolonged dry spells as storm systems track into northern Europe.
The best chance for rain will be during the first half of the season across the Iberian Peninsula.
Rain from the winter season, along with additional early spring rainfall, will provide good soil moisture levels for crops across the region.
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The dangers of high temperatures and weak ice
The surge of warmth predicted across the region will also help crops bounce back following devastating freezes that occurred during the winter months.
"Crops that were greatly impacted by abnormally cold weather during the winter will recover by the end of April," Roys said.
This recovery will bring an end to vegetable shortages across Europe.
"A period of well above-normal warmth is possible in late May across Spain and Italy," Reppert said.
The warmth will be welcomed across Italy following a cold winter which also featured an abundance of snowfall in the Apennines.
A quick warmup could result in dangerous flooding as any rainfall combined with mountain snowmelt could result in rapid river rises, especially in central Italy.
"The surges of warmth will also heighten the threat for avalanches in the Apennines and Alps," Roys said.
Storms to threaten France and Germany
Despite a chilly start to spring, surges of warmth will increase during April and May across France and Germany.
These warm air masses will set the stage for potential severe thunderstorms.
Storm systems racing in from the Atlantic will interact with the warm air creating widespread showers and thunderstorms.
The greatest threat for severe weather will be across east-central France and southern Germany. Lyon, France, and Frankfurt and Stuttgart, Germany, are included in this risk area.
"These storms will be capable of producing damaging winds, hail and flash flooding," Roys said.
The potential exists for the strongest storms to produce tornadoes.
Balkan Peninsula to endure temperature swings
Following the harshest winter in more than a decade for parts of the Balkan Peninsula, spring will follow a weather pattern closer to normal.
A cold period is forecast to start the season followed by frequent swings in temperature from the middle of March through May.
Warmth from the Mediterranean will pulse northward throughout the Balkans. However, cooler air will dive into the Balkans for several days at a time as storm systems cross northern Europe.
The initial surges of warmth could heighten the risk for flooding across the region as mountain snowmelt flows into rivers and streams.
"This threat will be greatly enhanced if coupled with moderate to heavy rainfall," Roys said.
Harshest cold to sweep across Poland, Baltic states and Ukraine
While cold weather will linger across much of northern and eastern Europe into the start of spring, the harshest cold is expected across the Baltic states, eastern Poland, Belarus and Ukraine.
Significant and long-lasting cold is expected in March before a slow thaw occurs in April.
"Lasting snowcover from the winter will add to the delayed warmth," Reppert said.
While no prolonged periods of unseasonable warmth are predicted during the spring months, a few brief periods of warmth are possible in May.
The early season cold will also keep the door open for accumulating snowfall throughout March.
"We do expect one more heavy snowfall event across Ukraine during the month of March which will delay the growing season across the region," Roys said.
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