Possible Snowstorm Could Give Midwest, Plains a Reality Check Late This Week

Chris Dolce
Published: February 19,2017
A late-winter reality check appears likely later this week in the Plains and Midwest as a potential snowstorm looms for many cities currently in the grips of a widespread spring fever that is breaking records in some areas. The warmth has even tied all-time record highs for the month of February.
(MORE: Spring Fever = Record-Breaking Warmth)
The weather system that will bring a change to conditions more typical of winter will first dump snow across the mountain West as upper-level energy ripples through that region Wednesday.

Low pressure develops late this week and could bring snow and strong winds to the Plains and Midwest.

The energy will then spawn an area of surface low pressure in the central Plains by Thursday which will track in the direction of the Great Lakes through Friday. On the northwest side of where that low tracks will likely be a swath of accumulating snow along with the potential for gusty winds.
The exact track of the low will determine where the most significant snow eventually sets up along the storm's path, but that remains uncertain at this time given we are still several days away.
Below we have a look at the general timing of this potential snowmaker followed by where accumulations could occur.
(MORE: Named Winter Storms This Season, So Far)

Potential Snowstorm Timing

Wednesday

• Snow is expected from the Sierra Nevada into the Rockies with lowering snow levels.
• Some accumulating snow is possible in valley areas, including Salt Lake City, Wednesday night.
• By Wednesday night, snow will also begin to spread out into the High Plains of Wyoming, western South Dakota and western Nebraska.

Thursday

• Snow and wind will begin to increase in the Plains while also continuing in the Rockies.
• By Thursday night, snow could spread as far east as southern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan.
• Strong winds may lead to poor travel conditions in parts of Nebraska, South Dakota, northwest Iowa and southern Minnesota by Thursday night.

Thursday's Forecast

Friday

• Snow and gusty winds could impact a swath from South Dakota and Nebraska to parts of Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Upper Michigan.
• Travel could be significantly affected in parts of the Upper Midwest given the possibility of snow and strong winds reducing visibility.
• Some ice or snow may reach as far east as northern New England, but the rest of the East will see rain and even some thunderstorms.

Friday's Forecast

Who Could See Accumulations?

• Our graphic below shows the general geographic area shaded in white that has the potential to see at least light accumulating snow later this week in the Plains and Midwest.
• Right now that includes areas from Wyoming, South Dakota and Nebraska to parts of northern Iowa, southern Minnesota, Wisconsin and Upper Michigan.
• In that general area, some locations have the potential to see 6 inches or more of total snow.
• Keep in mind that since this event is still several days away uncertainty remains with details such as where the most significant snow and worst impacts may be. Check back for updates.

(CITIES: Cheyenne, Wyoming | Minneapolis | Sioux Falls, South Dakota)

Potential Accumulating Snowfall Area

Paltry U.S. Snow Cover

Snow cover across the country is currently low for late-February standards, partially thanks to the widespread warmth we are seeing.
Just 20.4 percent of the Lower 48 was covered by snow as of Feb. 19, according to NOAA's National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC). That's the lowest amount of coverage for that date in the short period of record that begins in 2004.
The average snow cover across the Lower 48 for Feb. 19 during the 13 years for which records exist in the database is 35 percent.
Minneapolis/St. Paul hasn't seen an inch or more of snow since it recorded 2.2 inches on Jan. 25. Some accumulating snow from this next system is not out of the question in the Twin Cities depending on this storm's ultimate track.
Chicago hasn't picked up an inch or more of snow yet in 2017, and last saw more than an inch of snow Dec. 16-18 when it received 3.4 inches. The Windy City is unlikely to see any significant snowfall from this late-week system.

MORE: Deepest Snow in All 50 States

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