Published: November 8,2016
Today is Election Day, and you may be wondering, not only what conditions will be like as you head out to the polls, but also whether the weather may factor in the battle for control of Senate, not to mention the presidency.
A 2012 poll commissioned by The Weather Company found weather can have a game-changing effect on turnout in a close election, with party affiliation and demographics key factors.
- Already-decided voters more certain to vote. Among
those who plan to vote and know which candidate they’ll vote for, 19
percent say bad weather will impact whether they make it to the polls,
compared to 35 percent of undecided voters.
- In bad weather, republican supporters are more likely to vote.
Among registered voters, more voters (28 percent) supporting the
democratic candidate are likely to say that bad weather would have a
“significant or moderate impact” on their getting to the polls than
republican voters (19 percent).
- Icy conditions are the biggest weather roadblock.
Among registered voters age 55 and older, 12 percent say icy road
conditions would impact their ability to get to the polls. In the
Northeast and the Midwest, 11 percent and 10 percent respectively cite
icy roads as a potential roadblock to voting.
- Rain and cold temperatures can keep voters home in the west.
In the western states – including Colorado and Nevada – 6 percent of
registered voters say they wouldn’t make it to the polls in
“unseasonably cold” temperatures. Rain would keep 5 percent of voters
home in those same western states, according to the survey.
- Income levels make a difference. If you make less than $50,000 a year, you’re more likely to “probably or definitely not” vote in inclement weather than those making more than $50,000 a year.
As The Weather Company weather strategist, Paul Walsh, discussed during the Brexit vote in summer 2016, weather throws wild cards into someone's Election Day, including:
- Will my commute be longer and shorten the window I have available to vote?
- Do I have a car to protect from the elements? Or will I have to wait for public transportation or walk in poor conditions?
- If I have a car, do I have to drive on wet or icy roads?
- Are long lines expected? Do I have the gear to keep me dry and warm if I have to stand outside and wait my turn?
(MAPS: Interactive Radar | Current Temperatures)
National Radar
Here's a look at how things are shaping up in the so-called battleground states, followed by a region-by-region tour of Tuesday's forecast.
Election Day Forecast
Battleground States
Possibly Wet- Michigan: Some rain showers will move through the state from west to east along a cold front during the day, but widespread heavy downpours are not anticipated. Highs will range from the 40s in upper Michigan to the 50s in lower Michigan.
- Ohio: Light rain showers will increase during the day, particularly in western and northern Ohio. It will be much warmer-than-average with afternoon readings in the 60s for most.
- Colorado: Dry and mainly sunny weather conditions are forecast in the Centennial State. Temperatures will be above average, with highs in the 60s in Denver and Pueblo.
- Florida: The Sunshine State will live up to its dry November reputation for most. A few showers cannot be ruled out, however, in the western Florida panhandle near Pensacola. Highs will be in the 70s and low 80s.
- Iowa: A lingering rain shower is possible in far eastern Iowa during the morning, but otherwise the state should see dry weather. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above average, which means most areas will rise into the 50s to near 60 degrees.
- Nevada: Dry weather will be the rule with highs topping out up to 20 degrees above average. In fact, Las Vegas could be near its daily record-high temperature of 83 degrees.
- New Hampshire: Dry weather conditions are forecast with high temperatures more than 10 degrees above average. Concord will see afternoon readings in the low 60s.
- North Carolina: No weather problems are anticipated at this time with high pressure in control. Highs will mainly be in the 60s across the state, though a few spots could touch 70 degrees.
- Pennsylvania: Mostly sunny skies are expected in eastern parts of the state while clouds increase in the west. A few showers could sneak into northwest Pennsylvania before the polls close. Most lower-elevation areas will have high temperatures in the 60s, including Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.
- Virginia: Any rain showers ahead of a cold front should remain west of the state until after the polls close. Highs will be several degrees above average, topping out mainly in the 60s or low 70s.
- Wisconsin: Outside of perhaps a lingering morning rain shower in southeast Wisconsin, the state should enjoy dry weather. Afternoon readings will be above average in the 50s.
Northeast
Fortunately, a stronger area of low pressure will remain sufficiently offshore, southeast of Atlantic Canada, to have zero impact on the weather near the Northeast seaboard.There is a cold front that will push toward the eastern Great Lakes, with a threat of rain showers associated with that. While most of the rain should hold off until after the polls close, a few showers could sneak into northwest Pennsylvania and western New York late in the day.
Elsewhere, the weather will be dry and mild.
Highs will be above average for the second week of November, generally in the 50s in northern New England, and 60s from upstate New York and southern New England southward into the mid-Atlantic states.
(FORECAST: Boston | New York | Pittsburgh | Washington D.C.)
South
The greatest chance for wet weather will be in the south-central states, including parts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas and western Tennessee. Dallas, Houston and New Orleans are among the cities where rain is possible.Elsewhere, dry conditions will prevail through the Southeast.
Temperatures will be near to slightly above average for much of the region. This translates to highs mainly in the 70s to perhaps even near 80 degrees along the Gulf Coast and in central and southern Florida.
(FORECAST: Atlanta | Miami | Memphis, Tennessee | Dallas)
Midwest
A cold front will be sliding across the Great Lakes on Election Day, bringing a few showers out ahead of it. The best chance for wet weather looks to be in lower Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Missouri.However, most Midwesterners will stay dry as they head to the polls.
No cold weather is expected with high temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above average across the entire region; this corresponds to highs in the 50s and 60s for most locations.
(FORECAST: Detroit | Chicago | Minneapolis | St. Louis)
West
The majority of the West is currently expected to be dry and pleasant with sunshine and above-average temperatures (away from the immediate coast). Some cities in the Northwest may see temperatures flirt with daily record highs.Highs will range from the 50s and 60s across the Northwest, to the 70s and 80s in southern California and the Desert Southwest. Localized areas in the typical hot spots could crack the 90-degree mark.
(FORECAST: Los Angeles | Denver | Seattle | Salt Lake City)
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