2016 Will Likely Be the Warmest Year on Record, World Meteorological Organization Says

Chris Dolce
Published: November 15,2016
This year is likely to be the Earth's warmest year on record, fueled by El Niño conditions early in the year, and long-term warming from climate change.
Temperatures for the world from January-September 2016 were 0.88 degrees Celsius above the 1961-1990 average, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced Monday.

The red line on this graph shows the overall climb in global temperatures since the late 1800s to now.

Preliminary data for October shows that the globe remains on track to set a new record warm benchmark in 2016.
October 2016 was the second warmest October on record, according to data released Tuesday by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, falling just behind October 2015 by 0.18 degrees Celsius.
This is likely to be the third consecutive record-warm year in a row for the globe, topping 2015 and 2014, which currently occupy the No. 1 and 2 spots, respectively.
The WMO says that 16 of the 17 hottest years on record for the world will have occurred this century after 2016 comes to a close. The lone year among those 17 that did not occur in the 21st century was 1998.

El Nino Fueled Warmth Early in the Year

Temperatures were well above average globally early in the year thanks to a strong El Niño that was in place late-2015 into early-2016.
With El Niño in the rearview mirror since late spring, global temperatures have come down slightly in relation to average, but still remain near-record warm levels.
Illustrating this is the fact that September 2016 was the second warmest September on record, according to NOAA. This snapped a string of 16 straight months that the average temperature for the globe had set a record high.
As mentioned before, NASA's analysis on October 2016 shows that it was the second warmest October. NOAA will announce its October report on Nov. 17.

Long-Term Warming From Climate Change 

The extra temperature boost from El Niño has faded, but the warming from climate change continues.
“Another year. Another record. The high temperatures we saw in 2015 are set to be beaten in 2016,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas. The extra heat from the powerful El Niño event has disappeared. The heat from global warming will continue,” he said.
Concentrations of greenhouse gases continue to reach near-record levels, and Arctic sea ice has been at low levels in 2016, the WMO said.
Arctic sea ice remained at a record low level as of mid-November for all years dating back to 1979.

This graph shows Arctic sea ice extent in 2016 (red line) compared to the 1981-2010 average (solid black line). Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center

Taalas said in the WMO press release, "Because of climate change, the occurrence and impact of extreme events has risen. ‘Once in a generation’ heatwaves and flooding are becoming more regular.  Sea level rise has increased exposure to storm surges associated with tropical cyclones."

Northern Hemisphere Sees Most Extreme Warmth in 2016

Areas shaded darker orange and red were the farthest above average January-September 2016. Credit: UK Met Office/CRU

Portions of the Northern Hemisphere had seen the most extreme warmth relative to average January-September 2016, the WMO said.
“In parts of Arctic Russia, temperatures were 6°C to 7°C above the long-term average. Many other Arctic and sub-Arctic regions in Russia, Alaska and northwest Canada were at least 3°C above average. We are used to measuring temperature records in fractions of a degree, and so this is different,” said Mr Taalas.
Oddly enough, October and the first part of November has featured a turn of events for parts Siberian Russia, where it's been colder than average.
NASA's analysis for October 2016 shows the patch of cooler than average temperatures in Russia, as well as eastern Europe, amid a much larger area of above-average temperatures for most other parts of the globe.

Much of the world saw above-average temperatures in October 2016. There were some cooler-than-average spots, particularly in Russia and eastern Europe. Credit: NASA

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