Severe weather outbreak looms for Louisiana to Illinois on Groundhog Day

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist

January 29,2016; 10:27PM,EST

 

 

A potent storm is likely to fuel a significant severe weather outbreak over part of the southern Plains and Mississippi Valley early next week, including on Groundhog Day.
A strong storm system will move in from the Pacific Ocean over California late this weekend.
In addition to bringing consequences from heavy rain and mountain snow to California and the interior Southwest on Sunday, the storm could bring dramatic and dangerous weather conditions as it pushes east of the Rockies.
The weather pattern will be more like March, rather than early February, in the days leading up to the storm.

According to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Henry Margusity, a buildup of warmth will take place this weekend and into early next week over the southern Plains ahead of the storm.
"The warmup and strong winds aloft associated with the system will help to fuel heavy, gusty thunderstorms that could evolve into a severe weather outbreak perhaps centered on the Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys on Tuesday," Margusity said.

While the exact timing and extent of severe weather are not set in stone at this point, early signs are pointing to the threat for a few isolated tornadoes. Damaging winds and flash flooding could be more widespread impacts of the severe weather.
Another aspect of the storm will be snow and wind on its northwestern flank.
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During late Monday and Monday night, the first powerful thunderstorms of the event may erupt from parts of southwestern Missouri to the eastern parts of Oklahoma and Texas and the western parts of Arkansas and Louisiana. Those traveling near Springfield, Missouri; Tulsa, Oklahoma; Little Rock, Arkansas; Houston and Shreveport, Louisiana; will need to be on alert for the development of damaging thunderstorms.
During Tuesday into Tuesday night, the risk of severe weather is likely to spread, expand and ramp up farther to the east.
The severe weather threat could extend as far to the north as St. Louis, Indianapolis and Cincinnati and as far to the south as New Orleans, Mobile, Alabama, and Pensacola, Florida, for a time on Tuesday and/or Tuesday night. Storms may reach Atlanta by Wednesday morning.
During Wednesday, gusty to locally severe thunderstorms could occur from the Carolinas to Maryland.
Strong wind gusts in the absence of thunderstorms could extend as far north as Pennsylvania and New York state with the potential for sporadic power outages.