Heavy Snow, Blizzard Conditions Possible in Rockies, Plains, Upper Midwest Next Week (FORECAST)

Quincy Vagell
Published: January 29,2016
Five years after the Groundhog Day Blizzard of 2011 hammered much of the Plains and Midwest, another winter storm may produce blizzard conditions across the Rockies and central United States to start February 2016. This time around, the areas with the greatest potential for seeing the most snow will likely be north and west of the heaviest axis of snow in the 2011 snowstorm.
A southward plunge in the jet stream this weekend is expected to trigger the development of low pressure east of the Rockies by early next week. With the low-pressure system forecast to rapidly intensify, wrapping moisture into cold air to its north, a swath of heavy snow and strong winds is forecast to develop north and northwest of the track of the surface low.

Potential Snowfall Through Wednesday

At this point, parts of the central and southern Rockies, central Plains, Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes have the greatest probability to see significant snow from this system.
(MORE: Winter Storm Central)
Below we discuss the potential setup in more detail.

System Develops in the West This Weekend

The seemingly endless parade of storm systems to impact the West Coast is forecast to continue into the weekend.
Forecasts from the computer models differ on the exact details, but more locally heavy rain is now spreading into the Pacific Northwest and far northern California, and will then slowly slide down the coast into Sunday. This could bring a burst of locally heavy rain, possibly thunderstorms, into Southern California Sunday.
(FORECAST: L.A. | San Diego)
Across the mountains, especially the Sierra, snow is likely to pile up, tacking on to their already above-average snowpack, by late-January standards.
(MORE: Sierra Snowpack at Five-Year High)

Sunday's Forecast

Snow will then overspread parts of Nevada, Utah and Colorado. Temperatures will be cold enough for snow across much of this area, but rain or a mixture of rain and snow is anticipated over the lowest elevations.
(FORECAST: Grand Junction, Colorado | Reno, Nevada | Salt Lake City)
As the jet stream continues to dig south across the West, snow levels will fall as cold air drives into portions of Arizona and New Mexico. This means snow will fall over much of the higher elevations of northern and eastern Arizona, eastward into the central and southern Rockies and adjacent Front Range as early as Sunday.

Storm Intensifies over Plains Early Next Week

Monday that low-pressure system will gather steam in the southern Plains. This will spread heavy snow from parts of Colorado and southern Wyoming, into parts of Nebraska, western Kansas, New Mexico, even possibly parts of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles.
(FORECAST: Casper, Wyoming | Denver | Santa Fe, New Mexico)

Monday's Forecast

The low-pressure system is forecast to move northeastward and intensify, reaching the mid-Mississippi Valley Tuesday. Again, the track of the storm is crucial, as heavy snow should persist to the north and northwest of the low track. Indications are that the heaviest snow will hammer parts of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest Tuesday.

Tuesday's Forecast

Later Tuesday into Wednesday, snow is expected to spread into the northern Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley.
Due to the intensifying low, another story will be the potential for strong winds. Sustained winds may reach 30 to 40 mph with gusts over 50 mph, with the highest confidence of this happening over parts of eastern Colorado, western Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa.
The combination of snow and wind could result in blizzard conditions, at times, in these areas.
(FORECAST: Des Moines | Green Bay | Minneapolis)
If that wasn't enough, a severe weather outbreak may occur on the warm side of this storm over parts of the South.
(MORE: Severe Weather Outbreak Potential)
Indications are that the storm moves swiftly to the northeast through midweek with precipitation tapering off to snow showers across parts of the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday.

Next Wednesday's Forecast

With the low projected to pass through the eastern Great Lakes and into Canada, mainly rain is in the forecast for the East Coast late Tuesday into next Wednesday. It is possible that some sufficiently cold air may be trapped in some valley locations of the interior Northeast to allow a bit of snow, sleet and freezing rain as precipitation first develops, but the storm track does not favor widespread accumulating snow or ice across the region.
(FORECAST: Boston | New York | Washington, D.C.)

Comparing to the Groundhog Blizzard of 2011

An impressive winter storm dropped more than a foot of snow from parts of Oklahoma into Missouri, Illinois and Michigan. Blizzard warnings were issued across eight states, as winds gusted to 50 to 60 mph with the snow.

A map showing snowfall totals from the Groundhog Day Blizzard of 2011.
(NOAA)

In Chicago, this event was the third heaviest snowstorm on record with 21.2 inches of snow from Jan. 31 to Feb. 2, 2011. The Windy City also set a 24 hour snowfall record with an even 20 inches during the height of the storm.
The main difference between this year's expected winter storm and the Groundhog Day Blizzard of 2011 is the storm track.
In 2011, low pressure began to develop over coastal Texas and ejected north-northeast into the mid-Mississippi Valley. This track was far enough south and east to allow cold air to reach Oklahoma City, Kansas City and Chicago, where temperatures stayed below freezing throughout the entire event.
Despite the upcoming storm system forecast to occur on the same calendar days as the 2011 Groundhog Day winter storm, there will likely be some differences in snowfall this time around.

Possible Groundhog Day Setup

Early next week, the low pressure is forecast to track farther north and west than the 2011 event. The corridor from Oklahoma City to Chicago should see mainly rain, as they end up near or south of the storm's track. However, this setup could result in heavy accumulating snow for areas such as Denver, Omaha and Minneapolis.
As always, check back with us at weather.com for the latest forecasts as new information comes in.
MORE: 11 Best Groundhogs