Election 2016: Snowstorm to unfold as thousands gather for Iowa Caucuses

By Mark Leberfinger, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer

January 29,2016; 10:14PM,EST

 

 

The 2016 Presidential Election season officially gets underway Monday evening, Feb. 1, with the Iowa Caucuses, and wintry weather may impact voter turnout.
Voters from Iowa's 99 counties will meet in caucus as the first step to determine who will represent the state at the Republican and Democratic national conventions.
However, a winter storm moving in from the Intermountain West is likely to cause snow to spread over a large part of the central and northern Plains during Monday night and Tuesday.

Snowstorm unfolds as thousands gather for caucuses

The voting prospects weather-wise could become precarious before the close of the caucuses because of the incoming storm system, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Matt Rinde stated. Snow and a wintry mix will arrive in part of the state during Monday night.
The caucuses are scheduled to be begin at 7:00 p.m. CST.
"Enough snow and a wintry mix can occur to make roads slippery in the southern third of Iowa as people are heading home from the Caucuses," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said. "The worst of the storm will overspread the state on Tuesday, when conditions are likely to range from blizzard conditions in the northwest to a wind-driven wintry mix in the southeast with the risk of sporadic power outages."
During Monday night into Tuesday, temperatures across Iowa will range from the upper 20s F and lower 30s in the northwestern part of the state to the middle 30s to lower 40s in the southeastern counties.
"However, how heavy the precipitation becomes and where the cutoff between rain and snow is will depend on the track of the storm," Sosnowski added. "Only if the storm moves faster than we now believe would travel deteriorate at a quicker pace over the central and northern counties of Iowa during Monday night."
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According to recent research of how weather has affected voter turnout at presidential primaries in Florida, New Hampshire and South Carolina, inclement weather is an added factor that could deter swing voters. The research, conducted by AccuWeather Business Intelligence Manager and Meteorologist Tim Loftus, analyzed overall weather trends and voting data, utilizing L2 as a resource.
Rain is not necessary to deter voters, but uncomfortable conditions, such as frigid or hot and muggy weather, do play a role, according to Rosemary Radich, AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions business intelligence manager.
"Women [voters] tend to be affected by the cold more than men," Radich said, adding that the conditions expected for the Iowa Caucuses could be detrimental to the female vote.

Candidates like Bernie Sanders who target young people may also feel an impact. Voters between the ages of 18 and 24 have higher turnout rates when the weather is sunny and warm.
The old adage that Republicans "pray for rain" turns out to be true in presidential elections, according to a 2007 study in The Journal of Politics.
The study "The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather, Turnout, and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections" found that as rain and snow increase above their respective election day normals, the better the Republican presidential candidate fared.
For every 1-inch increase in rain above its Election Day normal, the Republican presidential candidate received approximately an extra 2.5 percent of the vote, the study showed.
For every 1-inch increase in snow above normal, the Republican candidate's vote share increases by approximately 0.6 of a percent.
After Iowa, the first-in-the-nation primary will be held Tuesday, Feb. 9, in New Hampshire.