Severe Thunderstorms, Including Tornadoes, Possible in the South, Ohio Valley Early Next Week

Quincy Vagell
Published: January 28,2016


 
An outbreak of severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes, is possible early next week from the southern Plains into the Mississippi Valley and Deep South kicking off the month of February.
At the same time, a swath of heavy snow and strong winds will likely be ongoing to the north and northwest of the storm's track.
(MORE: Next Winter Storm Targets Plains, Upper Midwest)

The meteorological ingredients for a potential severe weather outbreak in the South on Feb. 2, 2016.

A sharp, southward plunge of the jet stream will swing out of the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains and Deep South early next week.
In response, surface low pressure will intensify, tracking from the Plains into the Great Lakes, drawing warm, moist air north from the Gulf of Mexico.
The strong wind fields associated with the jet stream will combine with at least modest amounts of instability (warm, moist air in low levels and colder, drier air in the upper levels of the atmosphere) to support a threat of severe thunderstorms.
The extent of destabilization on the warm side of the storm will influence how widespread and significant the severe threat could become, particularly regarding the threat of tornadoes.
Below is an outline of when and where severe thunderstorms may develop.

Severe Weather Forecast

Monday Night

• Scattered severe thunderstorms should fire across parts of east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma after sunset.
• The severe threat shifts east across parts of Arkansas and Louisiana overnight.
• Large hail appears to be the greatest threat, but damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes may also be possible.

Tuesday

• Thunderstorms are expected to be widespread from the Ohio Valley to the northern Gulf Coast ahead of the advancing cold front.
• This is likely to be the most active day for severe thunderstorms. The greatest severe risk shifts from eastern Arkansas and Louisiana into Mississippi, Alabama, western and middle Tennessee, and parts of Kentucky.
• Damaging wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes could develop in this environment, especially given strong low-level wind fields.

Tuesday's Forecast

Wednesday

• As the cold front slices east, thunderstorms appear possible from parts of the Southeast into the mid-Atlantic states, including the Florida peninsula.
• The severe threat will likely be less significant than prior days, but a few severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.

(MAPS: 10-day Forecast)

A Rare Early Risk Area

This prompted the Storm Prediction Center to issue a rare day 7 outlook Wednesday for the Groundhog Day severe potential. This is done only in cases where there is relatively high confidence that far out in time of organized severe thunderstorms, or concern for an outbreak.
According to Dr. Patrick Marsh of the National Severe Storms Laboratory, the last time the SPC highlighted a severe risk area on day 7 was July 14, 2013. It's only the 11th time that has been done since late April 2008.
National Weather Service meteorologist Taylor Trogdon compiled all previous cases since 2008 when the SPC outlined a severe risk area in their day 7 outlook.
An outbreak often, but not always, results, with some cases featuring a swarm of tornadoes, while others feature few tornadoes.

Check back with us at weather.com for updates on this potential severe weather outbreak.

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