What's Ahead This Week After Jonas

Quincy Vagell
Published: January 25,2016



 

While much of the East is still digging out from Winter Storm Jonas, other parts of the country will see more snow to start the new week. By midweek, a frontal system is expected to move toward the East Coast with rain and a touch of wintry weather, followed by the possible development of a storm near or off the East Coast at the end the week.
(MORE: Winter Storm Central)
Before we look ahead to the late week setup, let's discuss what can be expected at the beginning of the week.

First Snowmaker: Plains, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes

Low pressure will move towards the Great Lakes region through early Tuesday morning.
Light snow or rain changing to snow will impact locations from Upper-Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday.
Scattered rain showers are likely on the warm side of the system through the Ohio Valley.
A swath of 1 to 3 inches of snow is likely across the Upper-Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. Some locally higher amounts are possible, but otherwise this looks like a modest snowfall event.
Forecast: Milwaukee | Omaha | Sioux City

Snowfall Forecast Through Tuesday

Midweek Front: Rain Spreads Through the South

On Tuesday, low pressure moves from the Great Lakes into Canada, with a trailing cold front approaching the Appalachians and Deep South.
Rain showers will move from the lower Ohio Valley into parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Although some light snow or ice is possible across the higher terrain of Pennsylvania, Upstate New York and northern New England, temperatures should rise into the 40s across the region, supporting mainly rain from this next round of precipitation.

Tuesday's Forecast

Since rain is forecast to be fairly light, most of the fresh snowpack should be able to absorb the rainfall without any significant flooding concerns.
Forecast: Baltimore | Nashville | New Orleans
To the south, showers and a few rumbles of thunder will be possible from the Tennessee Valley to the Gulf Coast. The threat for any severe thunderstorms is fairly low, although a few storms could feature gusty winds and briefly heavy rainfall.
By Wednesday, the frontal boundary slowly moves toward the East Coast.

Wednesday's Forecast

Across the Southeast, rain showers with temperatures rising into the 40s and 50s are expected. Warmer, somewhat unstable air across Florida may support a few thunderstorms, some of which could become severe.
(MORE: Severe Weather Forecast This Week)
A combination of snowmelt and additional rainfall could lead to some ponding of water and spotty poor-drainage flooding in parts of Virginia and North Carolina. While this is not a major concern at this time, the situation will continue to be monitored.
The front will linger across the South into Thursday bringing more rain to the Southeast states along with potentially a few severe thunderstorms to Florida.

Late Week: Watching the East Coast?

The progression of the lingering frontal boundary becomes very important for the forecast along the East Coast come Thursday into Friday.
With the front located near or just offshore, a dip in the jet stream is expected to dig a trough of low pressure into the northeastern states at the end of the week. Low pressure may develop and rapidly intensify off the coast, especially if the approaching trough can catch up with the front.

Late Week Setup

If this "capture" of energy occurs too late or well offshore, then any coastal storm would likely pass out to sea, largely missing the Eastern Seaboard. This would result in few, if any, weather impacts along the East Coast.
However, if low pressure gets pulled back closer toward the East Coast, then we could see some snow, a wintry mix or rain in portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
Since this potential storm is still several days out, a lot of scenarios are still on the table. This storm, if it does develop, is unlikely to be another historic snowmaker, due to the expected lack of strong high pressure to the north. In addition, most computer model forecast scenarios as of late Monday show the low staying far enough offshore to keep most of the precipitation and strong winds off the coast.
Check back often with weather.com for the latest forecasts and information on this potential storm through the week.
MORE: Photos from Winter Storm Jonas