Severe Storms, Heavy Rain Possible in the Southern Plains This Weekend

Brian Donegan
Published: January 14,2017
Rain and thunderstorms will spread through the southern Plains this weekend on the warm side of Winter Storm Jupiter. A few severe storms are possible, along with locally heavy rainfall.
(MORE: Winter Storm Jupiter a Major Ice Threat)
The setup for the stormy weather involves an area of low pressure that will develop on the tail end of a front that is currently draped over the region. That low and its associated upper-level system will then spread eastward.

Current Radar

Here's a look at what to expect.

Severe Weather Forecast

Saturday/Saturday Night

• Scattered showers and storms will affect parts of Texas, southern Oklahoma and New Mexico.
• An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible in southeastern New Mexico and southwestern Texas.

Sunday/Sunday Night

• The most organized, heaviest area of rain and thunderstorms will move through Texas and Oklahoma during the day and into the overnight.
• Severe thunderstorms are possible in portions of western and central Texas.
• Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the main threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Thunderstorm Forecast

Monday/Monday Night

• Heavy rain and thunder will continue in east Texas, with areas of rain extending into parts of Louisiana and Arkansas and the Mississippi Valley.
• A few severe thunderstorms are also possible, from southern Arkansas to western Louisiana and eastern Texas.
• Strong wind gusts and hail would be the main threats.

Monday's Thunderstorm Forecast

(MAPS: 7-Day Rain/Snow Forecast)

Rainfall Outlook

In general, 1 to 3 inches of rain are expected across much of Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas through Tuesday, with a few spots seeing more than 3 inches, especially in eastern Texas.

Rainfall Forecast

A widespread and major flood event is unexpected at this time, since this rain falls over a period of several days. However, with cold top soils after the recent arctic air mass surges, the ground will not be as absorbent as in the warm season. Therefore, localized flooding cannot be ruled out where any areas of heavy rain stall over the same location for several consecutive hours, known as training.
(MORE: January Thaw Ahead for Parts of South, East)
Beyond that, any remaining areas of heavy rain will likely shift toward the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Tuesday and Wednesday, as well as into areas of the Southeast.

MORE: Flooding in Texas