Prolonged Lake-Effect Snow Event Underway; Feet of Snow Expected in Great Lakes Snowbelts

Brian Donegan
Published: January 26,2017
As winter makes a comeback in the East late this week and into the weekend, lake-effect snow will also return to the Great Lakes snowbelts for several days, and some localized areas will be measuring the snow in feet.
The National Weather Service has issued lake-effect snow warnings for areas east of lakes Ontario and Erie in New York state into Sunday evening.
(MORE: Pattern Change Brings Winter Back to the Northeast, Midwest)

Winter Alerts

Although temperatures aloft will only be marginally cold enough to support lake effect, generally between minus 8 and minus 12 degrees Celsius (10 to 18 degrees Fahrenheit) around a mile above the surface, deep moisture in the atmosphere will aid in the production of intense bands of snow, especially east of lakes Ontario and Erie.
(MORE: The Science Behind Lake-Effect Snow)
Multiple bands of snow are expected downwind of lakes Superior, Michigan and Huron, so accumulations in those snowbelts will generally be less than in the Erie and Ontario snowbelts, where the activity will eventually become more organized into a single, intense band off each lake.

Between 3 and 6 inches of snow are possible by early Friday in the Chautauqua Ridge east of Lake Erie and the Tug Hill Plateau east of Lake Ontario in upstate New York. Lake effect may weaken briefly Friday morning, before ramping up again by Friday afternoon or Friday night.
(MORE: Climate Change Could Bring More Lake-Effect Snow)
Significant lake-effect snow will likely continue right through the weekend over all the Great Lakes snowbelts, with the heaviest bands expected to set up in the Chautauqua Ridge east of Lake Erie and the Tug Hill Plateau east of Lake Ontario in upstate New York.

Current Conditions and Radar

A shift in winds ahead of a disturbance may push heavy snow into the Buffalo metro area on Saturday, where a lake-effect snow watch is in effect.
Wind gusts over 30 mph are expected, and blowing and drifting snow may lead to whiteouts, especially in the most intense snow bands. These kinds of conditions are notorious for causing pile-ups on highways, so it is best to avoid driving through lake-effect snow bands, if possible.
Since this is a four-day event that won't end until Sunday evening, snowfall will continue to pile up, with very impressive totals expected in localized spots.

Snowfall Forecast

The greatest totals will be east of Lake Ontario, where storm totals may exceed 3 feet in the Tug Hill Plateau. East of Lake Erie, south of Buffalo, 2 feet or more of snow could fall by late Sunday.
(MORE: The Heaviest Snowfall Records in the U.S.)
Lighter accumulations are expected in the upper Great Lakes, but many areas will still receive at least 6 inches of snow over the next several days.
The heaviest accumulations will mainly be north of Syracuse, south of Buffalo and east of Cleveland, but those cities could all see a few snow squalls through the weekend.
(FORECAST: Watertown, New York | Oswego, New York | Dunkirk, New York)
Syracuse – the snowiest large city in the United States – has only received 6.2 inches of snow this month, through Jan. 25. That's more than 21 inches below average for January.

MORE: Lake-Effect Snow