Sunday, January 15, 2017

Winter Storm Jupiter: Expansive, Multi-Day, Damaging Ice Storm Continues in the Plains, Midwest

January 15,2017
Winter Storm Jupiter continues to spread an icy mess northward across parts of the Plains and Midwest, leaving trees damaged and knocking out power in its wake. The storm is also making for very dangerous travel conditions on roads in those regions.
(INTERACTIVE: Radar | Storm Reports)

Current Radar, Temperatures, Conditions
Ice storm warnings remain in effect for portions northwest Oklahoma, Kansas, northwest Missouri, eastern Nebraska, and western and central Iowa. Those areas could see damaging ice accumulations, in addition to travel woes.
Jupiter is also being accompanied by snowfall on its western periphery. For this reason, winter storm warnings are also posted to the north and west of the ice storm warnings, including much of southeastern Colorado, the higher elevations of New Mexico, central Nebraska and northwestern Kansas.
(MORE: 5 Things to Know About Ice Storms)

Winter Weather Alerts

Current Conditions and Latest Reports

Tree damage in Perryton, Texas. (Sara Flohr/Facebook)
As of late Sunday evening, freezing rain was ongoing in a swath from northwest Oklahoma through central Kansas to central/southern Nebraska, southern Iowa, and parts of northern Missouri and central/northern Illinois. Snow was falling in portions of New Mexico, Colorado, western Kansas and western Nebraska.
Beaver, Oklahoma, has reportedly seen ice accumulate up to an inch think, while many other locations have seen up to a half inch of ice, including Dodge City, Kansas. Woodward, Oklahoma, estimated 0.60 to 0.70 inches of ice accretion on trees and powerlines. Near a quarter inch of ice accumulated on trees and other surfaces as far south as the Amarillo, Texas, area.
Trees have been damaged and power knocked out by the weight of the ice in parts of the Texas panhandle, northwest Oklahoma and southern Kansas.
At least six deaths have now been blamed on the slick travel conditions caused by Jupiter since Friday.
(NEWS: Latest Jupiter Impacts in Each State)
We have a complete rundown of notable winter storm reports after our forecast section below.

Sunday Night

  • The sleet/ice threat continues to spread north into the upper Midwest, but persists from the central Plains to Iowa and northern Kansas.
  • Ice accumulations in these regions may bring the potential for widespread power outages, numerous trees downed and paralyzed travel.
  • Some southernmost ice areas should change to plain rain overnight.
  • Heavy snow will develop on the western edge of this precipitation area, where colder air is deeper, in the Rockies and adjacent High Plains.


Sunday Night's Forecast

Monday

  • With warmer air pushing northward, the area of ice threat also pushes farther north into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes.
  • The swath that will see ice accumulations that may at least impact travel includes areas from eastern Nebraska and north Kansas eastward to Iowa, far northern Missouri, southern Minnesota, Wisconsin and northern Illinois.
  • Much of eastern Kansas, central Missouri and central Illinois will see plain rain.
  • A pocket of snow should persist and spread north from the High Plains of Colorado to western Kansas, western Nebraska and southeast South Dakota.

Monday's Outlook

Tuesday

  • A few pockets of snow, sleet or freezing rain may persist in parts of the upper Midwest, northern Great Lakes, interior Northeast and northern New England into Tuesday night.
  • Other areas should be mainly rain.
(MAPS: 7-Day Rain/Snow U.S. Forecast)

Tuesday's Forecast

Forecast Ice Impacts

Hazardous Travel, At Least

The entire ice threat area specified above, from the Plains to the Midwest, should experience hazardous roads, particularly untreated roads, bridges and overpasses.
Sunday night or Monday, the most southern ice areas may see a changeover to rain, helping to thaw out any frozen roads.

Damage/Power Outage Potential

The longevity of freezing rain is likely to lead to more damaging impacts in parts of the central Plains and the Missouri Valley, including:
  • Downed trees and power lines
  • Power outages, some of which may last for days
More than a half an inch of ice may accumulate in the hardest hit areas in the central Plains.

Winter Storm Jupiter Additional Icing Potential
In the ice accumulation forecast above, the following definitions are used:
  • Glaze: Hazardous travel, spotty power outages
  • Damaging: Some tree damage, numerous power outages
  • Crippling: Widespread tree damage, long-term power outages
Unlike many Plains winter storms, winds should be relatively tame during this event. However, Sunday night into Monday, some 10 to 15 mph winds in the worst ice-affected areas would add stress to ice-loaded trees and power lines.
(MORE: How Winter Storms Are Named | Winter Storm Central)

Snow Forecast

The best chance of at least 6 inches of snow, possibly mixed with sleet or on top of any initial ice accumulations, is from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains of northern New Mexico to the High Plains of eastern Colorado.
Lighter totals are expected to the northeast of that, from western Kansas and western Nebraska into southeast South Dakota and southern Minnesota, as well as in the Denver metro area.

Winter Storm Jupiter Snowfall Forecast
(MORE: Worst U.S. Ice Storms)

Storm Recap

Saturday Reports (Jan. 14)
Three-quarters of an inch of ice was reported in Waynesville, Missouri Saturday morning. Some small tree branches were reported to be broken down.
By evening, freezing rain waned in the Ohio River Valley, but accumulations of one-quarter to one-half inch were becoming common in the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma.
Friday Reports (Jan. 13)
During the day on Friday, over 100 reports of freezing rain and ice accumulations had come in from Oklahoma to western Kentucky and southwest Indiana.
Trees were downed and power outages reported in Springfield, Missouri, where about one-quarter inch of ice accumulation was observed by midday Friday. Not far from Springfield, more than half of an inch of ice had accumulated in Aldrich, Missouri.
Ice also accumulated on some surfaces in Carbondale, Illinois, Joplin, Missouri, and Tulsa, Oklahoma, among other locations. Tree damage was observed as far east as Carterville, Illinois.
Tree damage from accumulated ice in Carterville, Illinois, on January 13, 2017, during Winter Storm Jupiter.
(John Chaney)
Some cloud-to-ground lightning strikes were detected along the Interstate 44 corridor of far northeast Oklahoma and southern Missouri early Friday.
Monday - Thursday Reports (Jan. 9-12)
Jupiter's first phase brought major snow accumulations to the West, including lower elevations of the Pacific Northwest.
Up to 15.5 inches of snow was measured in the Portland, Oregon, metro area, beginning Tuesday night into Wednesday, accompanied by thundersnow with rates of up to 4 inches per hour.
According to the National Weather Service, Jupiter was the single biggest snowstorm for many in the metro area in almost 22 years, since a 12-inch snowstorm hammered the city two days before Valentine's Day, 1995.
The weight of this snow downed trees, and numerous vehicles were abandoned on metro streets and freeways.
(NEWS: Thousands Without Power, Hundreds of Cars Abandoned in Oregon)
Since the morning of Jan. 9, parts of the Sierra Nevada picked up almost 80 inches of snow. In Kingvale, California, almost 5 feet of snow fell in 24 hours ending 7 a.m. PST Wednesday.
(LATEST NEWS: Sierra Buried By Feet of Snow)
The combination of this dumping of snow and strong winds Tuesday prompted closure of stretches of Interstate 80, U.S. 50 and California Highway 88 over the Sierra. According to the NWS in Sacramento, the last closure of this magnitude on Interstate 80 over Donner Summit was in March 2011.
In fact, going back over a seven-day period, parts of the Sierra have picked up an almost unfathomable 12 feet of snow, during what the NWS in Reno is calling the biggest Sierra snowstorm in six years.
(MORE: Too Much Snow Shut Down Some Resorts)
The pure volume of snow lead to several avalanches, including a controlled avalanche impacting about a dozen homes in Alpine Meadows, California. Residents of Crystal Bay and Incline Village were asked to shelter in place due to the avalanche threat.
A small avalanche prompting closure of the only plowed road to Crater Lake National Park in southwest Oregon.
Another avalanche also impacted a dozen homes Tuesday in the Greater Lake Tahoe area.
Additionally, heavy snow pounded parts of the Great Basin and Rockies.
The town of Hill City, Idaho, picked up at least 26 inches of snow in 24 hours, with snow so deep, ski lift chairs were said to be dragging in the snow, according to a local media report to the NWS in Boise early Wednesday.
If that all wasn't impressive enough, an EF0 tornado touched down around midnight Wednesday morning near Arco Arena in Sacramento, downing trees and fences and twisting metal awnings.      

Snow and Ice Reports

Here are some selected ice reports from Winter Storm Jupiter, as of late Sunday evening.
Colorado: 0.12 inches in Wray
Illinois: 0.37 inches of sleet and freezing rain near Maeystown; 0.25 inches in Steeleville, O'Fallon, Hoyleton and Waterloo
Kansas: 0.50-0.60 inches in Columbus; 0.50 inches near Dodge City; 0.20 inches in Emporia, Concordia and Salina
Kentucky: 0.10 inches in Sturgis
Maryland: 0.12 inches in Eckhart Mines
Missouri: 0.75 inches near Waynesville and Aldrich; 0.20 inches near St. Louis
Ohio: 0.06 inches in Hamilton
Oklahoma: 1 inch in Beaver;  0.60-0.70 inches Woodward
Pennsylvania: 0.10 inches in Little Baltimore
Texas: 0.50 inches in Canadian with broken tree limbs; 0.50 inches in Gruver; 0.50 inches in Darrouzett with trees limbs down; 0.25 inches near Amarillo
Here are some selected snowfall reports from Winter Storm Jupiter, as of late Sunday evening.
California: 79 inches at Soda Springs and Kingvale
Colorado: 26 inches at Molas Pass
Idaho: Estimated 71.4 inches at the Galena Summit Snotel station; Ski lift chairs were dragging in the snow at the Soldier Mountain Ski Area.
Montana: 10 inches near Cooke City
Nevada: 54 inches in 48 hours at Diamond Peak Ski near Incline Village
New Mexico: 9 inches near Mogollon at the Silver Creek Divide Snotel; 3 inches near Santa Fe
Oregon: 20 inches near La Pine; 15.5 inches just west of downtown Portland; 13 inches in downtown Portland
Washington: 14 inches near Yacolt
Wyoming: 94.5 inches near Encampment at the Old Battle Snotel (total from Sunday morning to Thursday morning)
Check weather.com frequently for the latest updates on this system.
MORE: Winter Storm Jupiter, January 2017 (PHOTOS)

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