- Kilo was downgraded to a tropical depression late Friday night, and continues to struggle to organize.
- This system was located about 700 miles southwest of Honolulu as of Sunday afternoon, local time.
- While the intensity forecast is a bit uncertain, there is still a possibility that Kilo could eventually become a hurricane several days from now.
- Kilo is likely to be pulled northward into this upcoming week. The timing of that northward turn is somewhat uncertain and will ultimately determine how much of a threat it is for the western Hawaiian Islands, if any at all.
- Interests in Hawaii should monitor the progress of this system very closely.
(MORE: Expert Analysis | Hurricane Central)
Storm Information and Satellite
One of two scenarios is possible with Kilo. If Kilo continues to degenerate, it could become a remnant low by Monday. It is not uncommon for central Pacific tropical systems to suddenly weaken and dissipate. On the other hand, Kilo may still be able to better organize. The latest National Hurricane Center forecast continues to strengthen Kilo to a hurricane by the middle of this upcoming week.
Since the sea-surface temperatures are favorable for intensification and most of the computer guidance has consistently showed a strengthening trend, it seems plausible that Kilo could still eventually become a hurricane.
(MORE: Twin Typhoons in the Pacific)
Even with the unclear intensity forecast and a currently discombobulated Kilo, Hawaii still needs to watch this one. Kilo may get pulled northward into the new week ahead.
However, uncertainty remains with exactly where this northward turn may occur and how organized the system may be at that time. The recent trend in computer model forecast guidance suggests that Kilo will stay west of the Hawaiian Islands late this week. However, given the high amount of forecast uncertainty we've seen the last few days, interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Kilo through the week ahead for any future adjustments.
Projected Path
A tropical storm watch has also been issued for Johnston Atoll as Kilo is expected to pass just to the east late Monday and Tuesday.
Perspective on Kilo and Hawaiian Tropical Systems
Virtually all hurricanes near the Hawaiian Islands since 1950 have approached from the southeast, south, or southwest.In El Nino years, the trade winds that sometimes trap tropical cyclones well south of the islands relax, making these lingering storms south of the islands more susceptible to be drawn northward. Of course, an El Nino does not guarantee a hurricane will impact Hawaii.
(MORE: Hawaii's Hurricane History)
Kilo is the fourth named storm to have formed in the central Pacific basin this season and the sixth to track through the basin this year, including eastern Pacific storms Guillermo and Hilda. Loke became the record-breaking fifth storm to form this season in the central Pacific Friday, according to Eric Blake, hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center.
Four to five tropical cyclones are observed in the central Pacific each year, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. CPHC says a record 11 named storms were observed in the central Pacific in 1992 and 1994.
(FORECASTS: Honolulu | Hilo | Kona Coast | Maui)
NOAA's 2015 Central Pacific hurricane season outlook cited El Nino's tendency for reduced wind shear and more storm tracks coming from the eastern Pacific as reasons to expect an active season in the central Pacific Basin.
Lowry says dating to 1950, there is a 13 percent increase in the chance of a named storm to track within 100 miles of the Hawaiian Islands during an El Nino year compared to a neutral year.
Stay tuned to The Weather Channel and check back with weather.com for updates on this system.
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