Saturday, August 1, 2015

Hurricane Guillermo Spinning in the Central Pacific; Hawaii Impacts Possible

August 1,2015

Highlights:

  • Hurricane Guillermo was located more than 1,000 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, as of Saturday afternoon.
  • Guillermo underwent rapid intensification (defined as at least a 35 mph increase in maximum winds in 24 hours) Thursday into Friday and currently has top sustained winds of 105 mph, making it a Category 2 hurricane.
  • For the next few days Guillermo is forecast to stay over open waters as it moves to the west-northwest in the general direction of Hawaii.
  • Sunday into Monday, Guillermo should encounter increasing upper-level winds and cooler waters which will lead to gradual weakening. By the time Guillermo reaches the general area of Hawaii it will have weakened to a tropical storm.
  • It's too early to speculate on whether this system will eventually have any significant impact on the Hawaiian Islands. IF there are any impacts, it would not be until the middle or late portion of next week. Read below for more details.
  • Air Force Hurricane Hunters are tentatively scheduled to investigate this system on Sunday.
(MORE: Expert Analysis | Hurricane Central)

Storm Information

Projected Path

Model Forecast Wave Heights

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hawaiian Worry?

At this time, the trend in the computer forecast models has been to bring Guillermo near or north of the Hawaiian Islands. Guillermo will also be weakening as it approaches Hawaii due to stronger wind shear and dry air.
But it's still early and the forecast could change. Interests in Hawaii should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Here is a very early look at what impacts we could see depending on the track and strength of Guillermo as it moves near Hawaii:
- LIKELY: High surf seems like a good bet no matter what path Guillermo takes. Also, Guillermo's circulation will likely disrupt trade winds by Tuesday.
- POSSIBLE: Enhanced rainfall chances and gusty winds are possible midweek depending on the exact path and strength of Guillermo.
(FORECASTS: Honolulu | Hilo | Kona Coast | Maui)
Virtually every system approaching Hawaii from the east since 1950 tracking at least as far north as the latitude of the Big Island of Hawaii eventually weakened to a tropical storm or depression by the time it reached the islands.
We discussed the reasoning behind this in a piece written in August 2014.
Last August, Iselle became only the second tropical storm to landfall on the Big Island dating to 1950, after strengthening to a Category 4 hurricane.
Incidentally, hurricanes Julio and Ana also passed near the Hawaiian Islands in 2014. Ana was one of only four hurricanes since 1950 to pass within 150 nautical miles of Honolulu, dumping locally heavy rain and generating high surf.
Guillermo may not be the season's last to gain Hawaii's attention.
NOAA's 2015 central Pacific hurricane season outlook cited El Nino's tendency for reduced wind shear and more storm tracks coming from the eastern Pacific as reasons to expect an active season in the central Pacific Basin.
MORE: Amazing Hurricane Images (PHOTOS)

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