Published: May 4,2015
Tropical Storm Noul has flared up in the western Pacific Ocean and may threaten the Philippines this weekend.
Infrared Satellite Image
Noul, the western Pacific basin's sixth named tropical cyclone of the year, is about 485 miles southwest of Guam, and will pose no threat to the U.S. territory.
Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the atolls of Ulithi and Fais. The center of Noul is slowly moving to the west, thanks to weak steering winds aloft.
These areas are likely seeing tropical storm-force winds and locally heavy rainfall.
Just over one month ago, Ulithi, home to 700 to 800 people, was raked by Super Typhoon Maysak.
(MAYSAK: Ulithi Atoll Devastated | Images From Space)
Noul is expected to reach typhoon status (same as Category 1 equivalent hurricane) soon, as the center passes to the north of Yap Island.
A typhoon warning is in effect for Yap Island. Tropical storm-force winds are possible by Tuesday morning, local time, and, if the center passes close enough, typhoon-force winds are possible on Yap Island overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, according to the National Weather Service in Guam.
Yap Island is 14 hours ahead of U.S. Eastern daylight time.
Latest
forecast path and intensity of center of Noul from the U.S. Joint
Typhoon Warning Center. Circles denote uncertainty in location of center
at each forecast time period.How serious of a threat is this for the Philippines?
At this time, the future track of Noul, known as "Dodong" in the Philippines, remains uncertain, with two possibilities:
1) A sharp northward turn, missing the northern Philippines well to the east.
2) A continued west-northwest track toward the northern half of the Philippines this weekend.
Even if the Philippines' track (No. 2 above) was to occur, Noul/Dodong could weaken before reaching the islands. Such was the case with the former Super Typhoon Maysak, which diminished to a tropical storm before reaching northern Luzon in early April.
(FORECAST: Manila, Philippines)
Western Pacific tropical cyclones, known as typhoons when they reach hurricane-equivalent status, can form any time of year.
Owing partially to this year-round calendar of potential development, roughly one-third of all the Earth's tropical cyclones form in the western Pacific Basin. On average, 25 tropical cyclones form each year in the western Pacific Basin, with 15-16 of those strengthening to Category 1 equivalent typhoons.
(MORE: Hurricane Central | Tropical Update)
Check back with us at weather.com and The Weather Channel for the latest on this latest western Pacific tropical cyclone.
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